2023 Draft Grades Pick by Pick

The hard part about making a big board is that typically most of my analysis goes into the top prospects, and otherwise I’m taking guesses on thin sliced analysis. I always have a better idea of how I really feel about prospects after seeing exactly when and where they go, so grades may vary slightly from pre-draft board.

1. San Antonio— Victor Wembanyama: C+

Wemby was the correct pick, but Spurs don’t get bonus points for winning the lottery. They do get slightly negative points for not entertaining trade offers. Not that they needed to trade the pick, but they should have at least considered it given his generational hype and how injury prone super tall bigs are.

2. Charlotte— Brandon Miller: A

Miller was the best player available and the best fit. Taking Scoot would have been a costly mistake, so credit to the Hornets for getting such a high leverage decision right.

This could arguably be an A+ considering how many people believe Scoot was the accurate pick, but Miller is probably not quite elite enough to give such a high score.

Nevertheless, Charlotte gained significant future value by getting a big decision right, this is a solid A.

3. Portland— Scoot Henderson: C-

Tough pick to grade, because Scoot is not a bad choice here, but trading down would have been such a better option. Surely some team would have paid way too much for him, and even without a massive haul they aren’t missing out by trading down for a number of other guys that went top 13.

If they could have gotten 6/11 from Orlando and taken Anthony Black or Cason Wallace followed by Gradey Dick or Dereck Lively (or even Jett Howard), that would have been a huge W.

4. Houston— Amen Thompson: F
5. Detroit— Ausar Thompson: F

There’s some chance these twins become something, but the process on choosing them is terrible.

They are 20 year olds who have never played serious competition in their life, and were not quite as dominant as you would hope against high school competition this past season. This makes it fuzzy if they are really talented enough to have potential in the NBA, and sets them behind the curve for learning how to play defense.

They are long, rangey, and athletic, but you cannot value them over younger prospects who played well in the proven context of NCAA or professional basketball.

This is why bad teams stay bad. They are so desperate for upside, they take blind shots in the dark on toolsy guys who need to overcome many flaws to succeed. This leads to high bust risk, and not all that much upside in the favorable outcomes.

6. Orlando— Anthony Black: A-

Black has a solid case for best player available, although I would have given the nod to Cason Wallace.

Maybe Orlando didn’t want another young guard with Fultz, Anthony, and Suggs. But if we are talking fit, Taylor Hendricks would have fit great. They already have offensive hubs in Paolo and Franz, and he would have paired with them nicely as a low friction role player. Hendricks doesn’t have Black’s upside, but Orlando didn’t really need to roll the dice on upside here.

But this is all a small nitpick. Black a really good prospect who could pay off bigly. He is in a similar boat to Paolo, in that he needs to learn to shoot to maximize his potential, and if he succeeds he has huge upside.

Black is the player who has the upside that consensus thinks the Thompsons have, so getting him after they were off the board is great value.

7. Washington— Bilal Coulibaly: C-

Why did the Wizards need to trade up here? It was a reasonable price of two 2028 2nd round picks, but still.

Coulibaly is not a bad gamble on upside, but this is a bit soon for him. He is young and toolsy, but raw and does not do that much on the floor at this time, and there were still a good handful of quality NCAA freshmen on the board.

Washington has a glut of future 2nds from the Beal trade where they did well, but it wasn’t necessary to just give them away when there is nothing that sets Coulibaly ahead of other rangey wings on the board like Walker or Hendricks.

Trading up is generally inefficient because teams fall in love with “their guy” and then often overpay when there are equal or better options available. In this case Wizards paid up to get the weakest choice among the 3 big wings that went 7/8/9

Coulibaly is at least an upgrade over prior management’s propensity to draft the most boring + low upside old guys possible in the lottery, and this gamble could pay off in the long run. But it was nevertheless not the most efficient pull— especially considering the future picks squandered.

8. Indiana— Jarace Walker: B+

Indiana sorely needed a wing on their roster, and preferably a big one to play the 4, which brings it down to Hendricks vs Jarace.

I would have taken Hendricks, but it’s close enough such that Jarace could easily turn out better. In tandem with scooping a couple of future 2nds for free, it’s hard to knock Indiana’s selection here.

9. Utah— Taylor Hendricks: A-

Utah has not much young guard talent and Cason Wallace was best player on my board, so that would have been the pick of choice. But Hendricks was next best available, and fits a solid role player mold that every team needs on their roster.

Hendricks/Lauri/Kessler is a huge frontcourt that fits well together, as Hendricks has mobility to guard 3’s defensively and should be able to shoot decently enough offensively.

Utah has one of the strongest longterm hands in the league will their hoard of future picks, and Hendricks helps make it stronger.

10. Oklahoma City— Cason Wallace: A+

Oklahoma City is stacked with young talent in the backcourt with SGA, Giddey, and J-Dub with a fragile Chet Holmgren as their only interesting frontcourt prospect, so you would think they would take a big or wing.

But Sam Presti decided to take on Davis Bertans’ contract to move UP two slots for Cason, which is a significant price to pay for such a small move.

On one hand, this grade could be docked to an A because it’s not an ideal fit, and it may have been more efficient to stand pat at #12, take Gradey Dick if Orlando snipes Cason at #11, and avoid taking on Bertans’ deadweight.

On the other hand, they probably weren’t going to do anything special with the cap space, and you need to respect Presti’s willingness to not care about fit and take the obvious best player available.

The only player who is really set in stone as being a longterm impact player is Shai. Giddey and J-Dub have nice potential, but they still need to make improvements before that is realized. Cason has clear potential to be better than both, so may as well rotate them all now and see who emerges. Then trade whoever doesn’t fit the longterm plans for some taller help.

Overall great pick that gives OKC a nice boost to their longterm outlook.

11. Orlando— Jett Howard: B

Like most people, I had Jett Howard a tier lower than Gradey Dick and was surprised by this pick. Jett has some really gross flaws on defense, as he is soft, hates contact, and plays with lackluster effort. Because of this, it is difficult to get too excited about him.

But he also may have a bit more potential than Dick offensively, and it wouldn’t be a shock if this works out. Against the grain picks like this are always interesting because they can work terribly, but sometimes the team sees something that the public doesn’t and it works out in the end.

12. Dallas— Dereck Lively: A

This pick went great for Dallas. They got off Bertans to trade down just 2 slots, and got the best player available who is an excellent fit with Luka.

Lively has DPOY upside, and his only real flaw is that he cannot create offense to save his life. There is nobody better to pair him with than 38 usage Luka.

This all around was a super smooth pick for Dallas.

13. Toronto— Gradey Dick: A

Toronto needed shooting, and Gradey Dick is an excellent shooter and was likely the best player available. Hard to complain about this one.

14. New Orleans— Jordan Hawkins: D

Hawkins is a great shooter which everybody loves, but he is terrible on defense and can barely dribble, which makes him a not so great value proposition at age 21.

Shooters are weird, so who knows, maybe he makes > 40% on a massive volume of 3PA and isn’t a bottom 5% defensive player in the league carves out a career as a useful role player. But his absolute ceiling is JJ Redick, and there is a ton of bust risk involved here, so this is an underwhelming value proposition and a fairly significant reach.

15. Atlanta— Kobe Bufkin: B

Kobe is a well rounded SG who offers a bit of everything, with no strong weaknesses, so hard to knock this pick.

But skinny SG’s with short arms are not great molds that struggle to make major impacts, and this pick is fairly boring with Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez still available.

16. Utah— Keyonte George: C+

Key was a tough player to rank. He can shoot and create offense, and is strong and rebounds well for his position. But he is small for SG, not a great athlete, struggles to get to the rim, is turnover prone, and bad on defense.

If you squint you can see some Jamal Murray potential, but the one point that makes it difficult to fully buy is his lesser athleticism. He had 3 dunks as a freshman, and Murray had 18.

Maybe he can find a way to be that good anyway, but it seems like a longshot with a decent amount of bust risk attached. That said, he couldn’t have asked for a better landing spot as Will Hardy seems to be an excellent coach who can put him in a position to succeed.

This pick would be fine if it came a few slots later, but with Jaquez + Podz on the board it could be a regrettable one if Key is not any better than OJ Mayo.

17. LA Lakers— Jalen Hood-Schifino: F

JHS is the third SG taken in a row, and he is clearly the worst of the bunch. He was bad as an NCAA freshman, as he was inefficient, turnover prone, and played subpar defense. He is an older freshman and not very athletic, so it’s going to be an uphill climb to carve out an NBA career, and does not have much upside if he does.

Especially with Jaquez and Podz on the board, this pick may look silly in hindsight

18. Miami Heat— Jaime Jaquez: A

Jaquez is an awesome player, and he could not be a better fit than Miami. He was statistically similar to Jimmy Butler in college, his favorite player is Jimmy Butler, and now he gets to actually play with Jimmy Butler for an excellent coach and organization.

Jaquez is super competitive and a high IQ defensive player, so he fits in perfectly with Heat culture. He is a great bet to succeed in Miami as a useful role player if nothing else, and perhaps the Heat can help unlock some sneaky upside for him.

19. Golden State— Brandin Podziesmki: A+

Podz was the last exciting prospect on the board, and the Warriors got him.

He can fill the Jordan Poole role for them, except actually be good at basketball. He cannot create as much off the dribble as Poole, but he has an excellent feel for the game and plays hard, as he is an excellent rebounder for a guard.

The only unfortunate part is that his prime will not align with Steph, because at their peaks they would have been awesome together. As it is, they can still have a few good years as a fun tandem and Podz can help bridge the gap to the next era of Warriors basketball.

20. Houston— Cam Whitmore: C-

Whitmore is an odd prospect with some nice strengths but gross weaknesses. I ranked him 16th on board, although somewhat regretted it with the rumors that he had injuries and would slide. He is not that attractive of a slider to gamble on, and should have gone on my pass list.

There were also rumors that Whitmore is incapable of retaining simple information to follow a defensive gameplan, and he is out there winging it on athleticism. His slide may have factored this in as much as the injuries.

He already had flaws of a broken pass button and short limbs, and at a certain point you need to draw the amount of warts you can stomach to get an athletic scorer in the lineup.

Perhaps he’s a fine gamble this late in the draft, but odds are he’s not going to have a useful NBA career with all of his red flags. And Houston continues to load up on players of dubious basketball IQ who need to have the ball in their hands. KPJ, Green, Amen, and Cam rotating in with each other is gross.

Poor Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith. They need to be freed to real organizations ASAP.

21. Brooklyn— Noah Clowney: A-

Clowney is a bit of an odd NBA mold stuck between a small 5 and a big 4, but he is super young and had a productive freshman season for Alabama. He’s a solid gamble here.

22. Brooklyn— Dariq Whitead: D

Brooklyn adds another super young freshman, except this one was not productive in NCAA. Whitehead has vaguely passable SF size, but poor athleticism and feel for the game, shies away from contact, and absolutely needs his small sample of good 3 point shooting to be real because there is not much going for him otherwise.

23. Portland— Kris Murray: D

Kris Murray is an old prospect who had a decent enough junior year, but took too long to succeed as he could not get NCAA rotation minutes until he turned 21. This is a major red flag, and he may be riding his twin Keegan’s coattails a bit with his 1st round hype.

It’s difficult to see any compelling upside in a poor man’s version of Keegan.

24. Dallas— Olivier Maxence-Prosper: C-

Dallas took on Richaun Holmes’ contract to get an extra pick, which isn’t the worst idea in a vacuum, but not sure O-Max is the right guy to roll the dice on.

He’s an energy wing who plays hard but doesn’t actually do things on the floor, and while he is a darling of workouts + combine drills, it would have been more encouraging to see him actually perform like a future NBA player in college basketball games.

In spite of all of that O-Max has some chance of carving out an NBA career as a useful role player, but the odds do not seem compelling enough for round 1.

25. Detroit— Marcus Sasser: B pick, F trade

Sasser is a reasonable enough choice at #25 overall. Sasser actually fits nicely next to Cade + Ausar as a 3 + D PG, since their size enables a smaller non-PG to fit on the court.

But man they got savagely destroyed by Boston trading up from #31 to #25. They gave up the best of DET/WAS/GSW 2025 2nd rounder and the best of MIN/NOP/NYK/POR 2026 2nd rounder just to move up 6 slots for a relatively older role player.

Both of those 2nds are likely going to end up in the 30s, and the difference between 25 and 31 is trivial. This is a massive massive overpay for a fairly ordinary role player prospect that they absolutely did not need to trade up for.

This is what separates the smart teams from the dumb ones. Boston got three pulls that are only slightly weaker than the pick they sent to Detroit for the price of one, which is ridiculously lopsided.

This is why the Celtics are perennially at the top of the East while the Pistons are perennially at the bottom, and this is why it will continue to stay this way indefinitely.

26. Indiana— Ben Sheppard: D+

I don’t have the best grasp on Sheppard, maybe this pick is fine. But it feels like a reach and the Pacers already have Mathurin and don’t need another SG. They badly need wings with size who can defend, and man it would have been great to add Julian Phillips or Jordan Walsh instead.

27. Charlotte— Nick Smith Jr: D

On one hand it seems reasonable to buy this low on NSJ who entered the season with top 5 hype. On the other hand, the high RSCI freshmen who fall out of grace by draft time tend to bust, and there was nothing about Smith’s freshman season that indicates he is a compelling buy low candidate.

He is a small SG who chucks from mid-range all day, doesn’t play D, and is a merely good but non-elite shooter. That’s such a boring prospect, even this late it’s not too exciting of a value proposition.

28. Utah— Brice Sensabaugh: Who Knows

Not sure what to think of this pick. Brice is a top 20 talent who seemed to have major injury flags, and then ended up not sliding that far.

Without having an idea the severity of the injury risk, it’s hard to grade this pick. If Utah’s doctors think his bad knees are not a big deal and are right, this can be a nice value. Or if his knees are cooked this can be throwing away a pick on a guy who isn’t *that* much better than other options on the board. Who knows.

29. Denver— Julian Strawther: B+

I didn’t have a strong opinion on Strawther pre-draft. I toyed with the idea that he is a slightly worse Corey Kispert and rated him in round 2, but he also may be a slightly better Corey Kispert who is nice value here.

Regardless, Denver is a great landing spot for him. They already have a championship core and don’t need any fancy upside pulls, just need to find some role players who can competently fill minutes for cheap. In that regard, Strawther is a solid pull that fits nicely.

30. LA Clippers— Kobe Brown: C

Kobe is nice in certain ways, as a big wing who gives a bit of everything. But he’s old, and maybe too late of a bloomer to succeed in the NBA, especially if his 3P% improvement this past season proves to be fake.

31. Charlotte— James Nnaji: B

Who knows what to think about Nnaji. He is a physical specimen which makes him something. But can he play? It’s a mystery.

Seems like a reasonable gamble this late. 34 + 39 is a big price to pay to trade up, but Hornets had too many picks and needed to consolidate. Would have been preferable to roll a pick forward instead of setting one on fire to trade up, but most teams aren’t optimizing like that anyway.

32. Denver— Jalen Pickett: A

Jalen Pickett is like a 6’3 Jokic, so this pick is great for Nuggets. He plays a similar booty ball style to Jalen Brunson as a post-up guard, and although he is not the same as a shooter, he is bigger with better defensive potential.

Pickett has elite passing and can help run the offense when Jokic is on the bench, and possibly be a useful role player when he shares the floor with Jokic.

As a bonus, Denver’s G-League coach is Andre Miller— who was a booty ball PG himself and should be an elite mentor for Pickett.

33. Minnesota— Leonard Miller: B-

Miller is such a tough guy to make sense of. He had an incredibly productive season for G-League ignite on paper, but it’s mostly energy big stuff of getting putbacks and transition points that are nice to have in the NBA but not foundational for success.

He is stuck between 4 and 5 defensively and has bad IQ on this end, where he is often out of position and fails to make the correct rotation. Given that he is not really a rim protector or wing defender, he may be a disaster on this end.

And what is the payoff offensively? He made 79% FT on a small sample, but has an ugly 3 point shot where he made 30% on low attempts. Perhaps he learns to make an open 3 eventually, but a pure garbageman who can make an open shot is not that nice if it comes with limited passing and subpar defense.

His production makes him a tempting value proposition, but ultimately he may be an empty calories numbers guy who does not help teams win.

34. Sacramento— Colby Jones: B

Colby Jones is a guy I didn’t really get to scout. He seems decent here but I’m not the leading Colby Jones expert so don’t take my word for it.

Sacto paid a 2024 Mavs’ 2nd rounder to move up from 38 to 34, which is a fairly hefty price. Teams do it all the time, but that doesn’t make it right.

35. Chicago— Julian Phillips: A

Chicago traded two second rounders to get the #35 pick, and then took Julian Phillips who had been the best player on my board since Brandin Podziemski went off the board at #19.

Granted, Phillips isn’t that exciting, he is more of a fine player in an excellent mold than a monster upside pull. But he checks all of the boxes for what teams should be looking for in the draft, as he is tall, long, moves well, can pass, and while he is not comfortable from 3 yet, his 82% FT suggests that may come around in the future.

Great pickup for Chicago.

36. Milwaukee: Andre Jackson Jr.— A

Andre Jackson cannot dribble or score to save his life, but man is he a hooper. He has elite feel for the game as he moves without the ball, is a great passer, and plays defense.

He needs to improve his shooting to really be useful in the NBA, and his lack of handling is a nasty wart that could be his undoing, but this is a nifty move by the Bucks.

They paid a 2030 2nd rounder and cash to get some cheap help now while their championship window is still open. Reasonable trade and a good selection.

37. Denver— Hunter Tyson: B-

Tyson gives Denver another tall shooter who can hopefully provide them a poor man’s MPJ off the bench. Tyson is not the most thrilling from a value perspective, but he fits what they are doing and could prove to be a decent pick in time.

38. Boston— Jordan Walsh: A++++

Jordan Walsh would have been an A pick at 25th overall as one of the best picks on the board, and this grade gets a + for every additional 2nd rounder that Brad Stevens scooped in 4 trades.

He ended up getting

—2024 Mavs 2nd (probably in the 40s)
—2025 best of WAS/DET/GSW 2nd (probably early 30s)
—2026 best of NOP/POR/NYK/MIN 2nd (probably 30s)
—2027 Atlanta 2nd (who knows where)

That is a monster haul when I had Jordan Walsh vying with Julian Phillips for best player available at the pick he traded down from.

This is why more pulls are better. The difference between 25 and 38 was trivial, because he got possibly the best player available at 25, and then another two future picks of similar value and two other ones that could be decent in their own right. These trades net multiplied the value of #25 by 4x or something insane.

Sometimes teams need to consolidate so there’s a limit to how much this can be done, but this is such a sharp way to run a team and steal free value from the clueless teams like Detroit.

39: Atlanta— Mouhamed Gueye: A-

Nice upside gamble by the Hawks, as Gueye moves very fluidly for a 6’11 player who plays like a wing. He needs to polish up his skills and fill out his frame as his help D is soft now, but the potential is there.

Also the Hawks were the only team to trade with Brad Stevens and not get pistol whipped in value. They traded into this pick with a 2027 2nd rounder, which if you assume it is an average pick with a median outcome of 45 that is 4 years into the future, should be less valuable than 39 this year.

40. Lakers— Maxwell Lewis: D

Lewis Pepperdine team went 3-25 in mid-major conference games that he played— more like Maxwell Loses.

He has nice wing dimensions, a bit of scoring off the dribble, a bit of shooting, but his feel game the game seems broken as he is terrible on defense and an inefficient turnover machine on offense.

41. Charlotte— Amari Bailey: A

Bailey is a nice value here as he is an athletic SG who can play D. He needs to polish up his offense, but if so can be a nice pick. He’s better than other freshman SG’s who went round 1 such as Nick Smith Jr. or Jalen Hood-Schifino

42. Washington— Tristan Vukcevic: B

I don’t know much about Vuk, but he’s tall and can shoot and is probably a fine candidate to stash.

43. Portland— Rayan Rupert: D

Rupert is the prospect who waited the longest in the green room, and rightfully so. He has a good wingspan but is bad at playing basketball, as he had lackluster numbers playing in Australia this year and is not an athlete.

If he played college basketball in the SEC teams would probably realize he’s not good enough and not care about him, but as it is he sneaked into the draft and got picked. Good for him, but not so good for Portland.

44. San Antonio— Sidy Cissoko: B

Sidy seems fine here. He’s a bit boring as a defensive wing who only averaged 2.8 rebounds per game, but maybe he sticks and there isn’t much else hanging around round 2.

45. Memphis— GG Jackson: D

For such a smart team, Memphis sometimes makes some confusing draft picks. It didn’t make sense when they traded up to reach for Ziaire Williams in 2021, and it didn’t make sense when they picked GG this year.

Granted, this is a lower stakes pick and they did not trade up. Most of the players on the board will not amount to anything, so it’s not a big deal that GG likely won’t either.

But man GG seems like such a dud. He was terrible as a freshman, complete black hole on offense and disaster on defense. His movement is choppy, he’s not even that athletic, he’s just tall for a wing at 6’9 with no skills or feel.

His is super young so it would be understandable if he seemed like the type of guy who was willing to work on his game and improve, but he quit a workout in the middle to go vape in the locker room, which seems like it bode ills for his development arc.

On average RSCI darlings fallen from grace make for bad gambles outside of the top 20, and there is no reason to believe GG will buck that trend.

46. Atlanta— Seth Lundy: D-

Not sure why Lundy got drafted. He is a short, old one dimensional shooter who isn’t even that good at shooting with 36.8% 3P 81.4% FT in his NCAA career.

47. Indiana— Mojave King: F

It’s kind of mean to give F’s this late, but Mojave King is such a random and confusing pick. He is 21 years old and was a terrible backup for G-League Ignite this past season.

He is a SG with no real strengths and posted a 9.2 PER.

His teammate Sidy Cissoko is bigger, better, 2 full years younger, and went just 3 picks ago. What is happening here?

48. LA Clippers— Jordan Miller: B

Miller is old but has a good wingspan and can get to the rack, reasonable choice by the Clips here.

49. Cleveland— Emoni Bates: F

Emoni did everything in his power to prove that he is not good enough for the NBA in his NCAA tenure, but Cleveland figured let’s grasp onto the hope that his pre-NCAA hype meant something.

But when hype machines underachieve bigly enough in college, it typically means the hype was wrong. That is certainly the case with Emoni, who is a selfish player that contibutes nothing of value to an NBA team, unless they want an OK-ish pullup jump shooter who will never pass, rebound, or play defense.

50: OKC— Keyontae Johnson: B

Key is a reasonable choice from a talent perspective and a feel good story after he collapsed on the court two years ago and it appeared his career was in jeopardy.

51. Brooklyn— Jalen Wilson: B-

Gotta question Wilson’s size and athleticism for an NBA wing, but this late is probably fine to take him.

52. Phoenix— Toumani Camara: A-

Camara is a solid flier as a big wing who can rebound, defend, and hopefully learn to shoot. Not bad for Phoenix, who surprisingly still had a draft pick after doing their best to trade them all away.

53. Minnesota— Jaylen Clark: A-

Clark is a nice pull on a defensive minded guard. The medicals may be a bit risky coming off an achilles tear, but he’s a nice value this late.

54. Sacramento— Jalen Slawson: A

Slawson is an analytics darling as a well rounded big wing who gives a bit of everything. Nice pull late in the draft.

55. Indiana Pacers— Isaiah Wong: C-

The Pacers love drafting subpar SG’s way too much. This late it doesn’t matter but this is the THIRD one they have taken. This is why they have a gaping hole at PF that they needed Jarace to fill, but with 4 other picks they did not take a single other pull.

56. Memphis— Tarik Biberovic: C

Seems the Grizzlies just wanted to take a random international guy to stash. Say what you will about Biberovic, but he is certainly a random international guy.

57. Golden State— Trayce Jackson-Davis: A

I had TJD 18th on my board, and after seeing him slip like this I am questioning if that is too high. Perhaps he is too small, too slow, and not good enough at shooting to make it in the NBA.

But this late in the draft he is absolutely worth a flier. He had an insanely productive college career, and Golden State is a great landing spot for him as they have had great success with other smaller 5’s like Draymond and Looney.

58: Milwaukee— Chris Livingston B-

Livingston doesn’t seem very good, but that’s not always a dealbreaker when being coached by John Calipari.