How Good is Brandon Miller?

Brandon Miller is currently in hot contention with Scoot Henderson for #2 overall in the draft. The 6’9 wing had an excellent freshman season for Alabama, averaging 18.8 points 8.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 38.4% 3P, 85.9% FT for one of the best teams in the country and won SEC player of the year.

The social media masses tend to be less enamored with Miller, as he does not have the same attractive upside tail that Scoot is alleged to have. But every team needs a mobile 6’9 shooter, so let’s dive in to some comps to try to forecast exactly how good he will be in the NBA.

He has 3 NBA all-stars in his top 10 player comps at kenpom.com. His freshman season comps to their sophomore seasons, which works out well because Miller is actually slightly older as a freshman. So let’s see how he measures up side by side, per 70 possessions:

Note that this is the average of Klay’s sophomore and junior seasons.

Paul George is the most interesting upside comp for Miller. They are extremely similar across the board. George averaged more assists, but a similar A:TO without creating any additional offense. PG had a huge advantage in steals, but Miller crushes him in Box Score Plus Minus (BPM) as he played for a much better team against a tougher schedule.

Granted, PG grew 2” after the draft and his lack of team success proved irrelevant as he became excellent on both ends in the NBA. The main question for Miller is can he come close to PG’s defensive impact in spite of a low college steal rate? Most elite NBA defensive players had a higher NCAA steal rate than him.

The case in Miller’s favor is that Alabama had #3 defense with a low steal rate as a team (#262 of 363) with #1 defensive eFG%. So his steals understate his defensive capabilities. Miller can be a plus defensive player in the NBA, it is only a question of how high his upside goes.

And even if he falls short of PG’s defense, he could be a bit better on offense to offset. It’s not going to be super easy for Miller to become as good, but PG is a reasonable upside comp.

Klay comp is interesting because Miller is bigger, better at rebounding, and Klay’s additional “creation” was mostly just chucking long 2’s off the dribble. Miller also played for a much better team than Klay, and surprisingly he has a slightly higher 3PA rate and FT% with similar 3P%. He clearly an underdog to match Klay’s 41.6% 3P on high volume in the NBA, but you cannot rule out the possibility. If so, he should be a bigger and better version of Klay.

Hayward is another fairly close comp. Miller is approximately an inch taller, and likely has a few inches more length than Hayward who measured with 6’7.75” wingspan. Hayward was much more efficient inside the arc, but Miller was more comfortable bombing from deep. This could be a reasonable median comp for Miller.

Top 3 One and Done comps

Miller is similar to a handful of top 3 tall wings, but relatively geriatric:

Durant is included to show that Miller does not have that upside, as Durant was ridiculously good at a much younger age and had extremely long arms to boot with a 7’5 wingspan. He did have an AST:TO flag, but that proved trivial with the cheat code of being able to shoot over any defender in the NBA.

Back to realistic comps, Miller was better than both Smith and Ingram in college, but not quite by enough to outweigh the significant age gap.

Ingram has developed well in some ways, and not so great in others. A major issue for him is that in spite of developing into an elite free throw shooter, he takes a somewhat low volume of 3PA and prefers to operate in the midrange. He is nevertheless a good player, so perhaps his current self is his median-ish outcome based on pre-draft info. But he could have turned out even better.

Jabari Smith Jr. is a slightly scary comp for Miller after a disappointing rookie year. But it is far too soon to draw any conclusions for Jabari. He shot a disappointing 31.9% 3P as a rookie, and there are a number of plausible explanations.

Playing with the worst backcourt in the NBA in KPJ and Jalen Green did not help. Also his lack of a first step prevented him from punishing tight closeouts. And it is not clear how much good shooting luck he had in college vs. bad luck as a rookie. But he is still very young and has time to figure things out.

But if his shooting underwhelms, Smith’s career will likely underwhelm and the same goes for Miller. Both massively overachieved shooting expectations as freshman, which makes it worth taking their numbers with a small grain of salt.

On the upside, Miller had a slightly higher NCAA 3PA rate and an excellent 85.9% FT on 170 FTA, so his shooting signal is stronger than Smith’s even with a slightly lower 3P%. He also has a slightly better first step to attack closeouts, and he should end up in a less disastrous situation than Smith in Houston.

On the downside, Smith was 1.5 years younger, had more steals, eye-tested a bit better on defense, was listed 1” taller, and if they were in the same draft I would rate Smith higher.

I perceived both Ingram and Smith as average to slightly below average #1 picks pre-draft, and Miller should be rated a bit lower than both. Having him as an average #2/#3 pick seems about right, as that aligns with consensus.

Mundane Comps

These comps are less good and less heralded players that show the advantage of being tall, mobile, and shooty.

Cam Johnson #’s are his last two seasons at UNC combined. He did not reach Brandon Miller’s level until he was almost 3 years older, and seemed like a reach at #11 overall. But he has evolved into a good NBA player, and has solidly overachieved for his draft slot.

Trey Murphy had a much thinner frame, soft rebounding, and had basically no creation, and seems on track to provide positive value for #17 overall. Although just two years into his career it is too soon to draw strong conclusions.

Harrison Barnes statistically seemed like a reach at #7 overall. He was similar to Miller, except if Miller had worse shooting and chucked from mid-range from all day. He also had worse passing and rebounding (although they were slightly better as a freshman) and is 1” shorter. Yet he has provided solidly above median value for #7 overall. This comp suggests that Miller can have a decent career even if he underwhelms as a shooter.

Not included is Duncan Robinson because his NBA value has been all over the place, but he was a UDFA with extremely bland NCAA numbers who at times has been valuable in the NBA.

If we go further back, Peja Stojakovic and Rashard Lewis are comps who don’t have pre-draft statistics for comparison, but fit a similar mold. They were good players and could be even more valuable in today’s NBA with higher 3PA rates.

Negative Comps

It’s difficult to think of any examples of tall, mobile, and shooty wings who have flopped in the NBA, so we really need to reach for negative comps. These are career averages for all players per 70 possessions:

Adam Morrison going #3 was ridiculous both at the time and in retrospect. His poor rebounds, steals, and blocks reflected his lack of athleticism and he was a merely decent shooter. His main value was scoring inside the arc, which did not translate because of his poor athleticism, and he was an obviously terrible pick.

Marvin Williams was much younger as a freshman, and better than Miller in some ways, but had a bad A:TO, hardly ever attempted 3’s, and did not become an NBA 3 point threat until later in his career. If there is a cautionary tale from Williams, it is that he made 80.8% career NBA FT after shooting 84.7% NCAA with a similar sample size to Miller. But he was nevertheless median-ish return on #2 overall, so it is not the most chilling tale.

Rodney Hood measured 6’8.5” with 6’8.5” wingspan and was a good but not great shooter with good assist:TOV. But his rebounds, steals, and blocks were anemic and he eye-tested as very bad on defense. I was low on him as a prospect, yet he still had an above average career for a pick in the early 20’s.

Ziaire Williams and Kevin Knox were one and dones with a similar mold to Miller, but were much worse at both shooting and basketball. Knox was young enough to have a chance of figuring things out, but didn’t. Scariest lesson from Knox is his FT% regression going from 77.4% NCAA to 71.3% NBA career thus far.

Austin Daye was taller and more shotblocky, but was a foulbox, had low 3PA rate, and big A:TO flags. And Terrence Ross was a smaller and significantly diluted version of Miller, and still was only slightly below median for #8 overall.

Luke Babbitt and Jordan Hamilton had interesting statistics and could have been included, but they slid in the draft and failed in the NBA due to being unplayable on defense, which negates their box score production.

It’s hard to find a fail comp that is tall, mobile, and good at shooting because is a mold that has a relatively easy path to success. This is also an argument why it would be surprising if Jabari Smith is not salvaged into at least a semi-useful player.

Granted, it is not a huge sample size because it is not a common archetype. There is some chance that Smith and/or Miller set a new precedent as a negative example. But is so easy for this archetype to be useful, it makes it relatively safe to project a high floor.

Finishing Woes

Early in the season, Miller struggled to finish at the rim in traffic. Then he seemed to improve over the course of the season, until his struggles resurfaced in the tournament. Over the course of the season, he shot a meager 36.4% on 2 pointers in 16 games against top 50 teams according to kenpom.com.

But small sample size splits can be fluky. Further, Brandon Miller doesn’t need to be mixing it up at the rim in traffic that often. His main value comes from behind the arc, he isn’t getting drafted to penetrate the defense every possession.

NBA spacing makes the paint less congested than college, and he will likely be fine on transition, putbacks, and attacking closeouts.

This puts a dent in his upside, as it makes it less likely that he develops a slashing point forward ability over his career. And it could put a minor dent in his efficiency in median outcomes as well.

But it is not nearly as concerning as Scoot Henderson having finishing issues of his own. The main selling point for Scoot is that he is a slashing point guard who can pressure the rim like prime Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook. If he fails to do so, he does not have Miller’s shooting, size, or defensive versatility to fall back on.

X-Factors

There has been much discourse around Miller’s role in a fatal shooting, where he was not charged. This raises the odds of him getting into Ja Morant type of trouble in the NBA, but other than that should not be a huge deal.

One offsetting factor was how well he played after the news broke. He was constantly scrutinized for two days by social media with various fans and talking heads wondering why he was allowed to play and speculating a major hit to his draft stock. And then he responded by dropping 41 points on South Carolina, including the game tying basket in regulation and game winner in overtime, letting the world know he has ice in his veins.

South Carolina was easily the worst team in the SEC, but this was nevertheless an excellent performance that he followed it up with another great game against a stingy Arkansas defense 3 days later. Doing this under some of the heaviest scrutiny a college athlete has ever faced was impressive, and presented a favorable point to offset and arguably outweigh any fears stemming from his involvement.

Miller was also a rare massive overachiever for a super old freshman. More commonly, the sophomore aged freshmen like OJ Mayo and Shabazz Muhammad fall short of the hype in college, but Miller went above and beyond. In one sense this adds a degree of risk because he does not have strong priors to back this season up (especially relative to shooting), but in another sense it may be indicative of some unique intelligence that enabled him to develop his game at an outlier rate.

And not only did he overachieve as a player and carry his team to overachievement, but all of Alabama’s success happened with him on the floor. Per hooplens.com:

College on/off splits can be rather noisy, but Alabama did not have all that much talent around Miller yet were an unstoppable buzzsaw with him on the court. This doesn’t mean everything, but is a nice check mark in his favor.

While teams should worry a bit that Miller is too comfortable with guns and hanging around an unsavory crowd, they should also be intrigued by the signals that he is possibly clutch, an overachiever, and a winner.

I began the season as a major skeptic of Miller, but over the course of the season he won me over. It is difficult to be fully comfortable with how leveraged he is on shooting without strong priors to back it up, but he seems to have some unique goodness that makes him appealing to bet on.

Bottom Line

The worst thing you can say about Miller is that he does not have a clear path to MVP upside. But Paul George is good enough upside at #2 overall, and Rashard Lewis, Klay Thompson, Peja Stojakovic, and Gordon Hayward are enough all-star comps such that he can still be a decent payoff for #2 overall if he falls short of PG.

Further, he has a good floor as it is difficult to see him being much worse than Harrison Barnes without getting derailed by off the court issues. He is also an excellent archetype, as tall shooters with defensive versatility are in low supply and high demand in the modern NBA.

On one hand, it makes sense why people who think Scoot is a legit #1 overall prospect should go ahead given Miller’s lack of thrilling upside comps. But the problem is that Scoot is not a worthy #1 overall.

If Scoot’s upside is Derrick Rose, that is not as good as Paul George upside. Paul George peaked as a better player than Derrick Rose (in spite of Rose’s MVP), and is in a much more scarce + low friction mold, and should clearly be valued higher. You could argue that it is unlikely that Miller matches PG on defense, but it is also unlikely that Scoot matches Rose as a penetrator given the flaws he has shown for G-League ignite.

Miller also has a better floor, and his median comps are going to be more valuable than Scoot’s. Small guards need to hit their upper bound to really pay off, and even if Scoot becomes something like Stephon Marbury that is a player who leads his team to the play-in games rather than one who leads them to a championship.

Miller does not have the upside to be rated above Wemby in spite of whatever injury or longevity concerns that may come with being a giant stick monster, but he should be a layup choice over Scoot at #2 overall.