When Draft Consensus Hype Fails, Is It Wise to Buy the Dip?
One of the strange effects of draft consensus is that once a prospect gets enough hype, the vast majority of observers tend to agree and have a difficult time letting go.
If anybody is to blame for this, it is probably LeBron James. He was hyped as the next Jordan when he was in school, and then managed to live up to the impossible expectations consistently throughout his career. Now whenever impossible expectations are placed on any new prospect, it is difficult for fans to let go of the hope that he may be a franchise changer like LeBron.
Now with rumors that Brandon Miller is challenging Scoot Henderson for #2 overall, there has been a significant aversion on twitter as if Scoot falling to #3 will be a gift from the gods for whoever lands at that slot. But let’s review past situations since LeBron where somebody has been hyped as the top guy all season and flipped at the last moment.
2004: Dwight Howard over Emeka Okafor
Emeka the rejecta was projected as #1 overall pick all season, and it seemed solidified when he led UConn to a national championship. But as the draft approached, he fell behind high school senior Dwight Howard who proved to be the obviously correct choice.
2008: Derrick Rose over Michael Beasley
Beasley seemed like the layup #1 pick on paper after a monster freshman season where he averaged an efficient 26 points and 12 rebounds, but as the draft came closer, he fell behind Derrick Rose. Again, obviously correct choice.
2015: D’Angelo Russell over Jahlil Okafor
Throughout the season, the hot debate was Okafor vs Karl-Anthony Towns for #1 overall. By the end of the year, it was clear that Towns was the pick. But what didn’t become clear until closer to the draft is that Okafor would slip to #3 behind Russell.
Even though Russell’s career has been a disappointment due to maturity issues, he has still been more useful than Okafor who has been a bust
Situations Where Consensus was not Quite Flipped, but Came Close:
2014: Joel Embiid vs Andrew Wiggins + Jabari Parker
Wiggins and Parker entered the season as the top 2 guys, but over the course of the NCAA season Joel Embiid looked like obvious best guy in the class.
He might have gone #1 overall if injury concerns that caused him to miss two full seasons didn’t scare teams off, causing him to slide to Philly at #3. And in retrospect, he should have been the #1 pick anyway because he was that much better than the top 2.
2015: Ben Simmons vs Brandon Ingram
Simmons was the clear best talent on the board, but DraftExpress published a hit piece on Simmons to call his attitude into question and ranked Ingram #1 overall. Simmons went #1 anyway, and peaked higher than Ingram has thus far as a 3 time all-star, but has since had a bizarre decline where he appears to be washed up in his mid-20’s.
While Ingram is not a slam dunk #1 overall in retrospect, the doubts over Simmons have been largely validated as he has proven to be highly unreliable in spite of his talent.
2017: Celtics trade down from #1 to #3 to take Jayson Tatum over Markelle Fultz
This is not quite the same as a shift in consensus since Boston found a sucker in Philly who valued Fultz enough to trade a future pick to move up for him. For the entire season Fultz and Lonzo Ball were the consensus top 2 by both scouts and analytic models. But the Celtics were willing to go against the grain for the nominal fee of a future pick that would become Romeo Langford, and it was a massive boon for the franchise.
Situations where Hype Persisted, but Maybe it Shouldn’t have
2003: Darko over Melo/Bosh/Wade
Darko had almost as much hype as LeBron, and there were some minority opinions that he was even better than LeBron. And of course we all know how that played out, as a bust was taken over 3 Hall of Famers in a row.
2007: Oden over Durant
We never got to see how good Oden really was because of injury, but looking back it was somewhat absurd to take him over Durant. Granted, that was largely because the era still valued low post scoring over 3 point shooting, but Durant’s college stats were insane. He averaged 26 pts 11 rebounds 2 steals 2 blocks on 50.5% 2P 40.4% 3P 81.6% FT, and he did not turn 19 until September shortly before his rookie season.
Oden may have been a valid #2 overall, but he was a low post bruiser with no special shooting or passing ability. There was no guarantee he would have had a better career than Horford or Conley even with good health.
But because Oden was the one dubbed with generational talent before the season, Portland couldn’t pass him up for the actual generational talent who was available as well.
2018: Ayton + Bagley over Luka + JJJ
This was a weird year. It seemed all of twitter had 1. Luka 2. JJJ, but NBA GMs somehow couldn’t figure this out.
2021: Cade and Jalen Green over Evan Mobley
Cade Cunningham entered the season with generational hype, but then looked like just another good prospect at the top of the draft over the course of the NBA season.
Personally I rated Cade 6th on my final big board and Jalen Green 8th.
This showed up as an outlier rating on the draft twitter consensus board, which left a number of commenters in disbelief.
Now it’s far too soon to draw any firm conclusions, especially with Cade missing most of this season with a stress fracture in his shins. But in his small sample of games this year, he currently rated lower than all 5 of the guys I rated above him (Mobley, Suggs, Barnes, Franz, Sengun) in EPM, RAPTOR, WS/48, and only slightly ahead of Suggs in BPM.
There still is a long way to go, and he could easily turn out better than some of those guys over the long haul, especially if he can start making 3’s at a better rate.
We will see in time if 6th was an accurate rating for Cade, but based on early returns it appears to be in the ballpark of reason in a way that it would not for an actually elite prospect like LeBron, Luka, Durant, Anthony Davis, etc.
Jalen Green never had the extreme levels of hype of Cade, but is a cautionary tale for taking a flawed small guard who is not absolutely destroying the G-League over proven NCAA talent. This may be factoring into some executives favoring Miller over Scoot.
Summary
On average, people are too slow to let go of hype. The few occasions that a hyped #1 overall candidate has been overtaken close to the draft, he has not been a great slider for the next team. Jahlil Okafor and Michael Beasley busted, and Emeka Okafor had a decent but unspectacular career.
Markelle Fultz is still only 24 and not a complete bust, but nowhere near as good as most of the guys drafted after him in the top 7 other than Josh Jackson (injuries notwithstanding for Lonzo Ball + Jonathan Isaac).
Then among the guys like Cade Cunningham, Andrew Wiggins, and Ben Simmons where there are reasons to doubt them but not enough to supplant them from #1, they still have mixed bag careers where they aren’t total duds but also aren’t elite prizes (although Simmons appeared to be one early). Granted, Cade is still young enough to have a great career, but odds are looking increasingly slim.
And it may be a while until we see as pick as bad as Darko over Melo, Bosh, and Wade, but it definitely happened and should be a somber reminder not to get too drunk on hype for guys who aren’t dominating their competition.
What Does This Mean for Scoot?
While the prospect of Scoot slipping to #3 may seem like a rare opportunity for a lucky team picking 3rd, it may be more likely to be a trap. He has played much more like a Markelle Fultz type than a Derrick Rose or John Wall this year.
Granted, he has battled injuries, and looked good last season and was great in his Vegas exhibition game vs Victor Wembanyama this year, so there is a possibility that this season is not indicative of his true value. But for a small guard who is a mediocre shooter and defensive player, how comfortable can teams feel gambling on that possibility with a high draft pick? It is a dicey value proposition.
Passing on him at #2 overall for Brandon Miller is an obvious decision. At #3 overall, things become less clear, as the remaining talent becomes an incredibly broad tier with nobody really standing out.
At #3 overall with Miller going #2, the safest option is likely to trade down/out. Right now ESPN has #11/12/13 as Gradey Dick, Taylor Hendricks, and Cason Wallace. They don’t have the sexiest upsides, but project to be quality role players. And you never know when a mid-1st role player can randomly develop into an all-star like Klay Thompson (Dick) or Jrue Holiday (Wallace).
Based on what he has shown so far, there’s no clear reason to value Scoot above these types. Granted, they aren’t obvious slam dunk choices over him like Brandon Miller. But buying the dip on hype that fell flat is historically not a winning trade, and you are better off letting somebody else take the bait.