Which NCAA Prospects Get to the Rim the Most?

There are a number of angles to analyze draft prospects from, and one to consider is who can create and finish at the rim vs set defenses.

It is not an exact science, but using hoop-math.com which scrapes play by play data, we can look at unassisted rim FG made in non-transition settings, subtract putbacks, and get a decent approximation for who is self creating the most. Adjusting it per possession is a challenge, but to keep things simple we will look at it per 40 minutes. There is no pace adjustment since we are ignoring transition which will disregard more possessions for higher paced teams on average.

This is how the top NCAA prospects in the class ranked this past season:

Creme de la Creme

There were two big time creators this season with Trayce Jackson-Davis at the top. Since he is older and created most of his offense in the post, this should be taken with a grain of salt. But it is better to have than not, especially in tandem with his exceptional passing. Even without his creation, he is an efficient garbage man with a bit of rim protection, and could be a steal in round 2.

Cam Whitmore is the prospect who really shines through this lens, as he was able to create huge volume for himself from the wing in spite of being one of the youngest prospects in the draft. His problem is that his scoring is not supplemented with passsing, as he is prone to tunnel vision and averaged and underwhelming 0.7 assists vs 1.6 turnovers. The bullish case is that high steal rate suggests that perhaps his feel for the game is not totally broken, and his youth gives him ample time to improve his passing. Overall he is a major boom or bust prospect.

Solidly Good

After the top 2, there is a significant dropoff to Jaime Jaquez who is older and did much of his creation in the post as an undersized PF. But he has potential to be a quality NBA player without scoring, and having traces of creation ability gives him sneaky upside.

Mouhamed Gueye is an oddly underhyped sophomore projected at #46 overall at ESPN. He moves fluidly at 6’11, averaged almost as many assists (1.9) as turnovers (2.3), and his shooting is not completely broken (27.5% 3P 67.4% FT). He is fairly raw, but he has a good base of perimeter ability for his size. With a good developmental arc, he could become a Pascal Siakam type.

Kobe Bufkin is the top guard in the class with Brandin Podziemski, Cason Wallace, and Amari Bailey all right behind him. All of these guys have good but not great rim pressure, and will need to depend on other qualities to succeed in the NBA.

Cason has decent shooting, good passing, good defense, and plays efficiently under control which makes him a big time sleeper.

Podziemski has good shooting, solid passing, nice touch on his floaters, and also plays under control. Defensively he is a bit slow, but he has an exceptional motor and good instincts to help offset it. He is also a major sleeper.

Bufkin shot 83% FT in his NCAA career, and if he extend his range and increases his 3PA rate he has a chance of developing into a multi-level scorer who is a decent passer and limits turnovers.

Bailey is the one of the group who struggles to play under control, but he is very athletic, good defensively, and offers enough offensively such that he should not slide to round 2 as currently projected.

Maxwell Lewis, Anthony Black, and Brandon Miller are the wing prospects in this tier. Lewis has a nice intersection of fluid slashing and solid shooting with 35.4% 3P 79.1% FT in his career with solid wing dimensions at 6’8 with 7’ wingspan. Unfortunately his feel for the game is among the worst in the draft as he is a disaster on defense and an inefficient turnover machine on offense.

Black is an interesting case because he has youth, slashing, passing, defense, and a non-broken shot with 30.1% 3P 70.5% FT. But he is a jack of all trades master of none, and it’s not clear if this translates to a well rounded and good NBA player, or one lacking the strengths to justify his fringey shooting.

Miller is not a world beater as a creator, but for a mobile 6’9 guy who has excellent potential as a spot up shooter, he offers enough self creation and passing to have star potential in the NBA.

Mid Tier

Terquavion Smith competes on defense, showed a nice improvement in his passing skills as a sophomore, and gets to the rim decently enough for a guard who got up 8 3PA/game in both NCAA seasons. But he struggles with efficiency, only made 70% FT, and is by far the lightest player in the draft at 164 pounds with an incredibly slight frame.

GG Jackson could be rated in the high tier for his creation given his rate while being the youngest player in the draft who is only eligible by 2 weeks. But overall his freshman season was a disaster. He was massively inefficient, played poor defense, and averaged a grotesque 0.8 assists vs 2.7 turnovers for the worst South Carolina team in 58 years. He is young enough to have time to figure things out, but there are a few too many problems to solve to make him interesting.

Jordan Hawkins being middle of the road for his age and size is a problem. He is a small SG that will likely be a liability on defense, and being a non-passer and non-creator puts pressure on him to be one of the greatest shooters of all-time just to have a successful NBA career.

Comparatively, Brice Sensabaugh is 1.5 years younger, bigger, stronger, and also an elite shooter. He has his own concerns about lack of passing and defense, as well being too mid-range dependent in his creation. But it does not make sense to put them in the same tier with no real advantage for Hawkins and size, youth, and rebounding on Sensabaugh’s side. Yet ESPN mocks Hawkins at #13 overall and Sensabaugh at #25.

Moving down, we get a tier of SG’s with lottery hype and 3 + D wings. It is not a good sign that Keyonte George, Nick Smith Jr, and Jalen Hood-Schifino were getting to the rim at a similar rate as Taylor Hendricks, Julian Phillips, and Jordan Walsh. The latter three are mostly valued for their defensive versatility, while the former three are valued for their offensive creation in spite of being likely liabilities on defense.

Given their lack of rim pressure, you would hope that they blow away these wings in terms of passing and shooting, so let’s check the stats:

The wings are behind, but not THAT far behind. Phillips has the best FT% and a better A:TO than Smith and George. Hendricks has the best 3P%, a better 3PA rate than Hood-Schifino, and a better FT% than Smith + Hood-Schifino. Walsh more clearly lags behind as a pure defensive specialist, but even his A:TO and FT% are not *that* far behind.

Teams need to be concerned that all of these guards lack the offensive meat to justify getting on the floor as defensive liabilities. Keyonte has the best chance of success since he has the best shooting signal and is also tougher and more physical than the other two. But they are all on shaky ground.

Teams also need to re-assess letting Julian Phillips slide to round 2. For a young 6’8 wing with decent athleticism, his FT% and passing should lock him into round 1. He needs to extend his range beyond the 3 point arc and is unlikely to become a star, but he has such an easy path to becoming a useful NBA role player.

Low Tier

Noah Clowney is not much of a creator, but that is OK because he is super young and mostly a lob target and spot up shooter offensively. The bigger question is what will be his role defensively, as he is an undersized big who does not protect the rim.

Jarace Walker is in a concerning spot. His shooting is OK, but a bit fringey at 34.7% 3P 66.3% FT. His defense is a mixed bag, as he has great frame and dimensions and capable of making plays, but is slow laterally and overgambles for steals and blocks. He is not an athletic finisher, converting a lukewarm 51.5% 2P. His best feature is his passing ability, but how can he maximize that if he is not a creation threat? He has some interesting strengths, but it is difficult to see how they harmonize into a collectively good NBA player.

Jett Howard and Gradey Dick are in a similar boat of guys who don’t need to get to the rim because they are 6’8 elite complementary pieces who provide excellent shooting, good passing, and low turnovers. The main question for them is whether they can hang defensively.

Andre Jackson Jr. is a weird prospect because he does everything it takes to win except score at any level. He only averaged 6.7 pts game in 29 minutes as a junior because he doesn’t get to the rim, is not a good shooter, and basically the entire court is a cold zone for him. He is still an interesting flier based on his ability to do everything else, but you need to be concerned that he is too inept at scoring for his age.

Dariq Whitehead is in a danger zone after a disappointing season at Duke as #1 RSCI. He has decent dimensions and frame for a SF, but he completely and utterly flopped as an athlete at Duke. He had just 2 dunks on the season and scarcely created his own shot at the rim. Further, his feel for the game is a major concern, as he had a number of bad shot attempts and turnovers.

His saving grace is that he is incredibly young and made 43% 3P 79% FT at Duke. But this is on a small sample of 98 3PA 29 FTA. He was not this level of shooter pre-NCAA, and if he is not an elite shooter in the NBA it is difficult to see his ticket to success with such poor feel and athleticism. Some people may argue that he was held back by injuries, but he also looked terrible in the Hoop Summit making most of the worst plays in the game.

Dereck Lively comes up dead last as he essentially never created for himself and was limited to dunks and the occasional 3PA. It is difficult to say whether this is a major concern or not, as low usage bigs frequently see a big spike in creation from ages 18/19 to 20. But there is so much to like overall, with exceptional defensive upside, passing, and potential to be a capable shooter, it is likely worth stomaching his lack of creation.