Recently I tweeted a quick and dirty list of 2022 re-draft and got savagely ratio’ed for not agreeing with consensus. The problem with consensus is that it is driven by a rudimentary hivemind which is far from optimal for efficiency. Social media makes everybody more single minded which makes the wisdom of the crowd less efficient than it should be in theory. If you agree with the majority, and you get validated with likes. Disagree and get showered with dreaded ratios.
I don’t remember if you’ve done a 2021 re-draft but your original projections are all coming true. Recent Ringer articles on how great Sengun is and how “advanced stats don’t like Cade…” are the most recent manifestations.
Tonight Scottie Barnes plays Franz Wagner! Last year Franz was clearly better, let’s see about today.
Any thoughts on the Raptors? I keep knocking down the “gotta choose a direction” articles by insisting Pascal AND Scottie are greater than Pascal OR Scottie.
"If he continues to develop, maybe he can get paid $30M/year and become a guy like Tyler Herro or Jordan Poole that nobody wants to trade for. That is about the pinnacle of his upside, and it is not a particularly attractive one."
I've said this to you before, this type of take does not get nearly enough play. There is just no reason to want Jaden Hardy on your team in a league with a salary cap, that typically overvalues empty scorers.
Thanks, it has been going almost perfectly. All 5 guys I rated above Cade + Green looking solidly better than Cade and Green.
I have been DYING for the Raptors to trade Pascal for some time now. He does not fit with Scottie, he is not that good, and they cannot afford to extend him into his 30's as he declines and becomes even more of a drag.
I think Masai has been so slow to recognize that Siakam needs to go, that now his value is completely gone and he is going to need to take an underwhelming package to get off of him. Which they should take if they can get, because he should not be a part of the Scottie future.
Scottie, Jak, and OG are keepers (although OG is moveable if somebody overpays in trade), hopefully Dick eventually comes around. But they need to replace Siakam with another player who fits better with Scottie.
I'm usually a fan, but this article feels like a bit of slight of hand only comparing the oldest players to Kessler's DPM given he is such an outlier in the class. JDub had a lot of high-leverage games in March & April too as OKC was clawing into the play-in. So I give the end-of-year spike more credence. For JDub, in particular, I expect to see significant continued improvement ala an older rookie like Desmond Bane and unlike Saddiq Bay.
I can get behind this, but would probably go Paolo, Kessler (Tier) Jabari, Chet, JDub (Tier) everyone else. I guess I see JDub (post rookie year) like you do Franz - median outcome is high level role player with no weaknesses, can switch 1-4 w/ his wingspan and strength. I could see him looking something like a Bigger Derrick White.
Kinda similar high-end role player profile to Dyson and Sochan, but to me his development curve - late growth spurt, late bloomer, late riser, mid-major to NBA playing time - and physical/mental profile hint at sneaky upside. Jabari/Sochan/Dyson/Duran have upside because of their comparative age, I get it, but for me JDub has some sneaky Jimmy Butler level outs. They're all the same open-ender, but JDub's got the backdoor flush too. In reality no one knows and slightly different rankings in the same tier means very little...
Hey Dean,
I don’t remember if you’ve done a 2021 re-draft but your original projections are all coming true. Recent Ringer articles on how great Sengun is and how “advanced stats don’t like Cade…” are the most recent manifestations.
Tonight Scottie Barnes plays Franz Wagner! Last year Franz was clearly better, let’s see about today.
Any thoughts on the Raptors? I keep knocking down the “gotta choose a direction” articles by insisting Pascal AND Scottie are greater than Pascal OR Scottie.
Gerry Lewarne
"If he continues to develop, maybe he can get paid $30M/year and become a guy like Tyler Herro or Jordan Poole that nobody wants to trade for. That is about the pinnacle of his upside, and it is not a particularly attractive one."
I've said this to you before, this type of take does not get nearly enough play. There is just no reason to want Jaden Hardy on your team in a league with a salary cap, that typically overvalues empty scorers.
Please continue to hammer this point home!
Thanks, it has been going almost perfectly. All 5 guys I rated above Cade + Green looking solidly better than Cade and Green.
I have been DYING for the Raptors to trade Pascal for some time now. He does not fit with Scottie, he is not that good, and they cannot afford to extend him into his 30's as he declines and becomes even more of a drag.
I think Masai has been so slow to recognize that Siakam needs to go, that now his value is completely gone and he is going to need to take an underwhelming package to get off of him. Which they should take if they can get, because he should not be a part of the Scottie future.
Scottie, Jak, and OG are keepers (although OG is moveable if somebody overpays in trade), hopefully Dick eventually comes around. But they need to replace Siakam with another player who fits better with Scottie.
I'm usually a fan, but this article feels like a bit of slight of hand only comparing the oldest players to Kessler's DPM given he is such an outlier in the class. JDub had a lot of high-leverage games in March & April too as OKC was clawing into the play-in. So I give the end-of-year spike more credence. For JDub, in particular, I expect to see significant continued improvement ala an older rookie like Desmond Bane and unlike Saddiq Bay.
How do you feel about your assessment of Kessler >>> Jdub 9 months later ?
I can get behind this, but would probably go Paolo, Kessler (Tier) Jabari, Chet, JDub (Tier) everyone else. I guess I see JDub (post rookie year) like you do Franz - median outcome is high level role player with no weaknesses, can switch 1-4 w/ his wingspan and strength. I could see him looking something like a Bigger Derrick White.
Kinda similar high-end role player profile to Dyson and Sochan, but to me his development curve - late growth spurt, late bloomer, late riser, mid-major to NBA playing time - and physical/mental profile hint at sneaky upside. Jabari/Sochan/Dyson/Duran have upside because of their comparative age, I get it, but for me JDub has some sneaky Jimmy Butler level outs. They're all the same open-ender, but JDub's got the backdoor flush too. In reality no one knows and slightly different rankings in the same tier means very little...
Think Shaedon passing feel is alright for his age more worried about his handle and how easy are his buckets