I don’t remember if you’ve done a 2021 re-draft but your original projections are all coming true. Recent Ringer articles on how great Sengun is and how “advanced stats don’t like Cade…” are the most recent manifestations.
Tonight Scottie Barnes plays Franz Wagner! Last year Franz was clearly better, let’s see about today.
Any thoughts on the Raptors? I keep knocking down the “gotta choose a direction” articles by insisting Pascal AND Scottie are greater than Pascal OR Scottie.
Thanks! I'm happy about my 2021 predictions, I will likely revisit this after this season when everyone has completed year 3.
Pascal has gotta go. He is not a good fit with Scottie, and is on the wrong side of the age curve. He had a good run for the Raps, but this is Scottie's team now. IMO they should trade him for whatever they can get before committing to him from ages 30-33 with an extension.
"If he continues to develop, maybe he can get paid $30M/year and become a guy like Tyler Herro or Jordan Poole that nobody wants to trade for. That is about the pinnacle of his upside, and it is not a particularly attractive one."
I've said this to you before, this type of take does not get nearly enough play. There is just no reason to want Jaden Hardy on your team in a league with a salary cap, that typically overvalues empty scorers.
Thanks, it has been going almost perfectly. All 5 guys I rated above Cade + Green looking solidly better than Cade and Green.
I have been DYING for the Raptors to trade Pascal for some time now. He does not fit with Scottie, he is not that good, and they cannot afford to extend him into his 30's as he declines and becomes even more of a drag.
I think Masai has been so slow to recognize that Siakam needs to go, that now his value is completely gone and he is going to need to take an underwhelming package to get off of him. Which they should take if they can get, because he should not be a part of the Scottie future.
Scottie, Jak, and OG are keepers (although OG is moveable if somebody overpays in trade), hopefully Dick eventually comes around. But they need to replace Siakam with another player who fits better with Scottie.
I'm usually a fan, but this article feels like a bit of slight of hand only comparing the oldest players to Kessler's DPM given he is such an outlier in the class. JDub had a lot of high-leverage games in March & April too as OKC was clawing into the play-in. So I give the end-of-year spike more credence. For JDub, in particular, I expect to see significant continued improvement ala an older rookie like Desmond Bane and unlike Saddiq Bay.
Also, where is the sleight of hand if you agree Kessler is an outlier? It’s not just DPM, he is an outlier in every advanced stat and everyone else caps out at average.
A few things...(1) If DPM is so valuable, why not share how all rookies look -- not just the cherry picked young guy that had the highest vs. the old guys? (2) Isn't Kessler an outlier looking at his WS, PER and DPM vs the last few rookie classes. You agreed he isn't the most valuable archetype. Also only played limited mins.
DPM only allows you to comp up to 5 players at once. It is easier to comp to players with similar age, and these are the players that everyone believes should be rated higher than him.
And yes, he is an outlier by all metrics, and that’s the point. For an older prospect, we should be highly rating the outliers and proceeding with caution on the guys who are a more regular level of good.
1700 minutes is a significant sample. He averaged 28 mins as a starter and did not miss a beat. Low minutes narrative should be ignored.
I acknowledged the point about archetype but don’t fully agree with it. It’s a fairly minor point in the grand scheme relative to the immense value he provides
Even if OKC cared, the teams they were playing largely did not. Which is why it is not a major signal.
And if that’s not a signal, and he is not an outlier like Kessler, what is there for him to hang his hat on to be rated as top 3 in the class? Why can’t he be more like a Bey?
Everyone is erring on the side of optimism for no real reason. They just want to see him succeed. Maybe he does, or maybe he doesn’t.
Fair point on the other team's efforts. Personally, I'm buying into the increased usage given the critically to the Thunder and as well as the improved 3pter - the 32% vs 43% shooting pre & post all-star game. As for the last point, I'm a fan...my scouting could be crap but it aligns well with Sam Vecenie's analysis which I doubt driven by emotion.
I have the benefit of another full season, and you alluded to how leveraged his outcomes were. That being said I don't think Paolo is very good. Regardless of if he gets more efficient at each spot individually, his shot profile/appetite is extremely concerning. He is way to content to take contested middies and the only thing he really seems to have going for him is his FTR. I see the tatum archetype vision but I don't think he will ever become the shooter or have the iq/low ego that tatum has.
I can get behind this, but would probably go Paolo, Kessler (Tier) Jabari, Chet, JDub (Tier) everyone else. I guess I see JDub (post rookie year) like you do Franz - median outcome is high level role player with no weaknesses, can switch 1-4 w/ his wingspan and strength. I could see him looking something like a Bigger Derrick White.
Kinda similar high-end role player profile to Dyson and Sochan, but to me his development curve - late growth spurt, late bloomer, late riser, mid-major to NBA playing time - and physical/mental profile hint at sneaky upside. Jabari/Sochan/Dyson/Duran have upside because of their comparative age, I get it, but for me JDub has some sneaky Jimmy Butler level outs. They're all the same open-ender, but JDub's got the backdoor flush too. In reality no one knows and slightly different rankings in the same tier means very little...
That’s a reasonable ranking. But JDub is 3” shorter than Franz-- he is absolutely not cut out to guard 4 even though he’s long/strong for his height
Also Franz has such better feel for the game. He is already a super positive NBA player who does everything well. Being that at 6’9 vs. 6’6 and decent at most things is a stark difference.
Going to heavily disagree on Jimmy Butler comp. Jimmy Butler is extremely tough and physical. JDub looks like he should be able to play that way, but actually doesn’t. He’s fairly soft relative to his physical profile. Jimmy historically crushes him on rebounds and FT rate.
Yeah I don't think he'll start at the 4, but he can definitely fit into a heavy switching scheme no problem. His combine standing reach, wingspan, and weight are all within 1 inch or 15 lbs of: DFS, Aaron Gordon, Taylor Hendricks, OPJ, John Collins, Jeremi Grant. [Side note from looking back at combine #'s: Scottie Barnes is a freak].
And yeah I don't mean like Jimmy in terms of absolute style. Jimmy's way more power, toughness, strength through the chest. JDub is more finesse, length and angles. I mean more older, outlier wing that can pass, get to his spots on the court, rack up stls, and who just kept outliering into a unique primary creator and wing stopper. I see those upside outs, so I see a very high floor + high upside combo I don't see in the young guys or Tari/Keegan. I could (most likely) be very wrong though. Very interested to see what JDub, Dyson, Sochan (and Scottie Barnes) do this season.
Love Jaime and love him on the Heat. Hoping for his sake he doesn't get moved in any Dame deal.
It’s tough to say his position bc he is strong and long but he still measured 6’5.75 in shoes and plays small. Standing reach is a weird measurement bc so many guys tank, so I ignore it and focus on height + length
I suspect is that he is a 2/3 and you are pushing your luck playing him at the 4.
And of course he has some loose similarities to Jimmy, but he’s not going to provide nearly the same value. This is likely the disconnect between the #s and perception, where people are expecting something close to the real thing when he is merely a cheap knockoff version.
So we’ll see how things go next year. These older guys can steadily improve and become really good, or tread water/regress and lose their appeal in a hurry.
Ignoring standing reach is pretty short sighted in my opinion.
A player with wide, low set shoulders and a long neck may end up playing much smaller than expected, while a player with high, flexible shoulders will play much bigger.
I'm not sure I understand your point about "tanking" the measurement, but in general standing reach is the best measurement to indicate a player's effective playing height.
His passing feel isn't broken...but if you look at guys in his size range with a similar low assist rate at a young age, the best guys were DeMar DeRozan and Jaylen Brown who seem like reasonable upside comps for him. Which is not bad, but also not super exciting since both guys are a bit overrated imo.
Agree about his buckets being tough. He's been jacking some difficult ones this summer.
Hey Dean,
I don’t remember if you’ve done a 2021 re-draft but your original projections are all coming true. Recent Ringer articles on how great Sengun is and how “advanced stats don’t like Cade…” are the most recent manifestations.
Tonight Scottie Barnes plays Franz Wagner! Last year Franz was clearly better, let’s see about today.
Any thoughts on the Raptors? I keep knocking down the “gotta choose a direction” articles by insisting Pascal AND Scottie are greater than Pascal OR Scottie.
Gerry Lewarne
Thanks! I'm happy about my 2021 predictions, I will likely revisit this after this season when everyone has completed year 3.
Pascal has gotta go. He is not a good fit with Scottie, and is on the wrong side of the age curve. He had a good run for the Raps, but this is Scottie's team now. IMO they should trade him for whatever they can get before committing to him from ages 30-33 with an extension.
"If he continues to develop, maybe he can get paid $30M/year and become a guy like Tyler Herro or Jordan Poole that nobody wants to trade for. That is about the pinnacle of his upside, and it is not a particularly attractive one."
I've said this to you before, this type of take does not get nearly enough play. There is just no reason to want Jaden Hardy on your team in a league with a salary cap, that typically overvalues empty scorers.
Please continue to hammer this point home!
Thanks, it has been going almost perfectly. All 5 guys I rated above Cade + Green looking solidly better than Cade and Green.
I have been DYING for the Raptors to trade Pascal for some time now. He does not fit with Scottie, he is not that good, and they cannot afford to extend him into his 30's as he declines and becomes even more of a drag.
I think Masai has been so slow to recognize that Siakam needs to go, that now his value is completely gone and he is going to need to take an underwhelming package to get off of him. Which they should take if they can get, because he should not be a part of the Scottie future.
Scottie, Jak, and OG are keepers (although OG is moveable if somebody overpays in trade), hopefully Dick eventually comes around. But they need to replace Siakam with another player who fits better with Scottie.
I'm usually a fan, but this article feels like a bit of slight of hand only comparing the oldest players to Kessler's DPM given he is such an outlier in the class. JDub had a lot of high-leverage games in March & April too as OKC was clawing into the play-in. So I give the end-of-year spike more credence. For JDub, in particular, I expect to see significant continued improvement ala an older rookie like Desmond Bane and unlike Saddiq Bay.
Also, where is the sleight of hand if you agree Kessler is an outlier? It’s not just DPM, he is an outlier in every advanced stat and everyone else caps out at average.
A few things...(1) If DPM is so valuable, why not share how all rookies look -- not just the cherry picked young guy that had the highest vs. the old guys? (2) Isn't Kessler an outlier looking at his WS, PER and DPM vs the last few rookie classes. You agreed he isn't the most valuable archetype. Also only played limited mins.
DPM only allows you to comp up to 5 players at once. It is easier to comp to players with similar age, and these are the players that everyone believes should be rated higher than him.
And yes, he is an outlier by all metrics, and that’s the point. For an older prospect, we should be highly rating the outliers and proceeding with caution on the guys who are a more regular level of good.
1700 minutes is a significant sample. He averaged 28 mins as a starter and did not miss a beat. Low minutes narrative should be ignored.
I acknowledged the point about archetype but don’t fully agree with it. It’s a fairly minor point in the grand scheme relative to the immense value he provides
Even if OKC cared, the teams they were playing largely did not. Which is why it is not a major signal.
And if that’s not a signal, and he is not an outlier like Kessler, what is there for him to hang his hat on to be rated as top 3 in the class? Why can’t he be more like a Bey?
Everyone is erring on the side of optimism for no real reason. They just want to see him succeed. Maybe he does, or maybe he doesn’t.
Fair point on the other team's efforts. Personally, I'm buying into the increased usage given the critically to the Thunder and as well as the improved 3pter - the 32% vs 43% shooting pre & post all-star game. As for the last point, I'm a fan...my scouting could be crap but it aligns well with Sam Vecenie's analysis which I doubt driven by emotion.
3P% is super variancey in small samples. It’s likely pure randomness that he shot better post break
I have the benefit of another full season, and you alluded to how leveraged his outcomes were. That being said I don't think Paolo is very good. Regardless of if he gets more efficient at each spot individually, his shot profile/appetite is extremely concerning. He is way to content to take contested middies and the only thing he really seems to have going for him is his FTR. I see the tatum archetype vision but I don't think he will ever become the shooter or have the iq/low ego that tatum has.
How do you feel about your assessment of Kessler >>> Jdub 9 months later ?
I can get behind this, but would probably go Paolo, Kessler (Tier) Jabari, Chet, JDub (Tier) everyone else. I guess I see JDub (post rookie year) like you do Franz - median outcome is high level role player with no weaknesses, can switch 1-4 w/ his wingspan and strength. I could see him looking something like a Bigger Derrick White.
Kinda similar high-end role player profile to Dyson and Sochan, but to me his development curve - late growth spurt, late bloomer, late riser, mid-major to NBA playing time - and physical/mental profile hint at sneaky upside. Jabari/Sochan/Dyson/Duran have upside because of their comparative age, I get it, but for me JDub has some sneaky Jimmy Butler level outs. They're all the same open-ender, but JDub's got the backdoor flush too. In reality no one knows and slightly different rankings in the same tier means very little...
That’s a reasonable ranking. But JDub is 3” shorter than Franz-- he is absolutely not cut out to guard 4 even though he’s long/strong for his height
Also Franz has such better feel for the game. He is already a super positive NBA player who does everything well. Being that at 6’9 vs. 6’6 and decent at most things is a stark difference.
Going to heavily disagree on Jimmy Butler comp. Jimmy Butler is extremely tough and physical. JDub looks like he should be able to play that way, but actually doesn’t. He’s fairly soft relative to his physical profile. Jimmy historically crushes him on rebounds and FT rate.
Jaime Jaquez is closer to Jimmy than JDub
Yeah I don't think he'll start at the 4, but he can definitely fit into a heavy switching scheme no problem. His combine standing reach, wingspan, and weight are all within 1 inch or 15 lbs of: DFS, Aaron Gordon, Taylor Hendricks, OPJ, John Collins, Jeremi Grant. [Side note from looking back at combine #'s: Scottie Barnes is a freak].
And yeah I don't mean like Jimmy in terms of absolute style. Jimmy's way more power, toughness, strength through the chest. JDub is more finesse, length and angles. I mean more older, outlier wing that can pass, get to his spots on the court, rack up stls, and who just kept outliering into a unique primary creator and wing stopper. I see those upside outs, so I see a very high floor + high upside combo I don't see in the young guys or Tari/Keegan. I could (most likely) be very wrong though. Very interested to see what JDub, Dyson, Sochan (and Scottie Barnes) do this season.
Love Jaime and love him on the Heat. Hoping for his sake he doesn't get moved in any Dame deal.
It’s tough to say his position bc he is strong and long but he still measured 6’5.75 in shoes and plays small. Standing reach is a weird measurement bc so many guys tank, so I ignore it and focus on height + length
I suspect is that he is a 2/3 and you are pushing your luck playing him at the 4.
And of course he has some loose similarities to Jimmy, but he’s not going to provide nearly the same value. This is likely the disconnect between the #s and perception, where people are expecting something close to the real thing when he is merely a cheap knockoff version.
So we’ll see how things go next year. These older guys can steadily improve and become really good, or tread water/regress and lose their appeal in a hurry.
Ignoring standing reach is pretty short sighted in my opinion.
A player with wide, low set shoulders and a long neck may end up playing much smaller than expected, while a player with high, flexible shoulders will play much bigger.
I'm not sure I understand your point about "tanking" the measurement, but in general standing reach is the best measurement to indicate a player's effective playing height.
Think Shaedon passing feel is alright for his age more worried about his handle and how easy are his buckets
His passing feel isn't broken...but if you look at guys in his size range with a similar low assist rate at a young age, the best guys were DeMar DeRozan and Jaylen Brown who seem like reasonable upside comps for him. Which is not bad, but also not super exciting since both guys are a bit overrated imo.
Agree about his buckets being tough. He's been jacking some difficult ones this summer.