I've seen you use a multi year college player's freshman stats to compare to a one and done player's stats from their one year for a more interesting and possible balanced comparison. Ever take a look at Freshman Franz Wagner vs. Anthony Black?
Franz was closer in age to Black as a sophomore and completely smashed the eye test in a way that Black disappoints as he was much better defensively and made far fewer mistakes. Also Franz shot > 80% FT his whole career from age 15 whereas Black's shooting may be busted. And he is taller and longer.
Pretty much everything that was exciting about Franz is missing from Black.
They have a shot, but are fairly limited since NBA teams don't covet post scorers anymore.
If you are going to take a post scorer in round 2, may as well go for Zach Edey who is outlier good at it. Timme + Bacot have much more obviously limited upsides.
TBF Lewis was a primary option for the best AAU team in the country the summer before his frosh season at Pepperdine. So i think the losing has more to do with the program than him
Lorenzo Romar is a horrible coach and definitely deserves much of the blame, but most mid-major prospects who become good NBA players helped bring their program to a high point. And as bad as Romar is, he still did solidly better with the Colbey Ross + Kessler Edwards teams.
And even when you get past the losing, there isn't much to like in Lewis profile. The only good mid-major guy from a bad team was Paul George, and he had solidly better box score production, was almost a year younger, and grew 2" after the draft. And surely his defense eye tested as better because Lewis defense looks terrible.
As for AAU, he is slightly older so maybe he peaked early and has struggled to translate up + improve because of bad feel/IQ.
Ultimately I don't get why Lewis is hyped over any other mid-major. Seems like a super fringey UDFA who has slim odds of amounting to anything.
I've seen you use a multi year college player's freshman stats to compare to a one and done player's stats from their one year for a more interesting and possible balanced comparison. Ever take a look at Freshman Franz Wagner vs. Anthony Black?
Franz was closer in age to Black as a sophomore and completely smashed the eye test in a way that Black disappoints as he was much better defensively and made far fewer mistakes. Also Franz shot > 80% FT his whole career from age 15 whereas Black's shooting may be busted. And he is taller and longer.
Pretty much everything that was exciting about Franz is missing from Black.
What are your thoughts on a pair of big time seniors: Armando Bacot and Drew Timme? Do either have a shot?
They have a shot, but are fairly limited since NBA teams don't covet post scorers anymore.
If you are going to take a post scorer in round 2, may as well go for Zach Edey who is outlier good at it. Timme + Bacot have much more obviously limited upsides.
TBF Lewis was a primary option for the best AAU team in the country the summer before his frosh season at Pepperdine. So i think the losing has more to do with the program than him
Lorenzo Romar is a horrible coach and definitely deserves much of the blame, but most mid-major prospects who become good NBA players helped bring their program to a high point. And as bad as Romar is, he still did solidly better with the Colbey Ross + Kessler Edwards teams.
And even when you get past the losing, there isn't much to like in Lewis profile. The only good mid-major guy from a bad team was Paul George, and he had solidly better box score production, was almost a year younger, and grew 2" after the draft. And surely his defense eye tested as better because Lewis defense looks terrible.
As for AAU, he is slightly older so maybe he peaked early and has struggled to translate up + improve because of bad feel/IQ.
Ultimately I don't get why Lewis is hyped over any other mid-major. Seems like a super fringey UDFA who has slim odds of amounting to anything.