Sweet 16 Big Board

This draft is not easy to rank. It gets incredibly fuzzy after the top 2, as there is a broad tier of pretty good but not great prospects to sort through.

In the past, I have often shaded toward consensus when in doubt, but it doesn’t feel like this ever helped sharpen my rankings. It is important to understand the valid points that consensus may have behind its valuations, but the market is full of inefficiencies.

That said I wouldn’t expect these rankings to be anywhere near perfect efficiency. For almost every prospect I am tempted to start and end with a caveat that I’m unsure whether he will be good or not. But it can be helpful to consider unorthodox rankings and then re-visit them closer to the draft to see if they still makes sense.

Note that for some prospects I went into more depth in my Mid-Season Board and chose to not elaborate much here:

1. Victor Wembanyama

No surprises here. Wemby is the clear #1. The only debate is how he ranks compared to past elite prospects, which is tricky to say. His atypical physical profile is the only real knock, mostly because he could struggle with injuries, and it may lead to other unexpected warts.

I would definitely take him behind Luka Doncic. If healthy Joel Embiid, Jaren Jackson Jr., or Evan Mobley were in this draft, it would be a tough decision who to take.

But regardless, there isn’t much to say negative about Wemby outside of the injury concerns and he has good odds of becoming a perennial all-star and hall of famer if he stays healthy.

2. Brandon Miller

Miller has been sputtering a bit lately, showing some of the weaknesses finishing inside the arc that he displayed early in the year. He shot 3/11 from 2P vs Maryland and 1/6 vs Texas A&M in the SEC final.

His 49.4% 2P on the year is decent enough, but he is only shooting 37.5% inside the arc vs top 50 teams. He has shown major improvement in this area over the course of the season, but he still doesn’t always look that smooth at the rim.

That said, it is hard to stay mad about this when he is cashing free throws at 85.7% and 3P at 39.5% on big volume while his team keeps rolling

It’s tough to say what his odds of being a future star vs quality role player are, but he definitely seems good enough for such a coveted mold that it’s difficult to argue anybody else above him at #2.

3. Cason Wallace

He is so statistically similar to Jrue Holiday, it’s tough to get over it. Granted, the Jrue comp is slippery because he is the best defensive guard in the NBA and a 40% 3 point shooter, and it is unlikely that Wallace becomes one of these things let alone both.

But he is a super solid PG, plays under control, has decent enough athletic pop, and is the type of player that can fit into any lineup. He can be worse than Jrue both shooting and defensively, and still be good.

It’s tough to pick a confident choice at #3. But Cason stood out as one of the most interesting prospects entering the season, and when in doubt it typically works out to take the Calipari prospect.

4. Taylor Hendricks

It feels bold to put Hendricks this high, but his defensive versatility is interesting. He moves his feet incredibly well for 6’9, and has a bit of rim protection ability averaging 1.7 blocks/game.

Throw in 39.4% 3P on 4.6 3PA/game and 78.2% FT, and almost a 1:1 AST:TOV ratio, and he is the prototypical role playing wing that everybody covets so much.

His best physical and statistical comp is Jerami Grant, except Jerami Grant played zone defense in college and didn’t show the elite man to man potential that Hendricks has. Grant with better defense would be a super useful player in the modern NBA.

The scary point about ranking him so high is that he was only #46 RSCI, and only shot 11/40 2P (27.5%) and 16/24 FT (67%) in AAU. There is some chance he’s merely a Jeff Green type of guy who is never really that useful.

But he’s also young enough and toolsy enough to have more upside than a Jerami Grant type, and it’s difficult to have high conviction in many prospects in this draft being good. So let’s err on the side of optimism for now.

5. Kyle Filipowski

Flip is a weird one. He isn’t generating much draft hype because his bad plays look bad. He is not particularly athletic or fluid, and he often struggles to finish at the rim in spite of being 7’ foot tall.

On the flipside, he offers a wide range of perimeter ability for 7’. He only made 28.2% 3P, but attempted 3.4 per game and made 76.5% FT. He has much better shooting potential than the typical big.

He also does a decent job holding his own on switches. He is not the quickest player, but he is not the slowest player either and occasionally strips perimeter players trying to test him. Other times he seems to lose his balance and gets left in the dust, so he is a mixed bag in this category.

He is also a capable handler and passer, and created a good amount of his own offense leading Duke in scoring at 15.1 pts/game. He had his struggles with efficiency as he would often barrel toward the rim and miss the layup, but he seemed to show progress throughout the season with an excellent 4 games between the regular season finale and ACC tournament.

He struggled on paper against Tennessee in Duke’s tournament loss shooting 6/16 with 1 assist and 4 turnovers, but largely suffered from his 3 not falling at 0/5. He was 6/11 inside the arc with almost all of his scores being self created against an elite defense, and he got called for a 50/50 charge called that could have easily been a bucket and 1 instead.

He is also an excellent rebounder, although his lack of length and athleticism limit him as a rim protector.

Collectively Flip is a one of a kind prospect. He has some off-putting warts, but also an intersection of strengths that is almost never seen. It’s difficult to find an adequate comparison for him.

He does not have the fluidity of a Lauri Markkanen, so that comparison is misguided. He seems closer to Kelly Olynyk. This may seem like a boring comparison for a top 5 value, but Kelly was a lottery pick who had a good and underrated career and easily a top 10 value in his class, and that’s definitely not a hard cap to his upside. He also could be taller Ryan Anderson with less 3 and more D.

A downside comparison would be Henry Ellenson, who had a fairly similar freshman year to Flip statistically. Except Flip had better scoring volume and efficiency for a much better team, and nearly double the steal rate. Ellenson was a busted pick at 18th overall. While Flip comes with his own bust risk, it would be a bit silly for him to slide to the same slot as Ellenson as he is currently projected at #17 on ESPN’s board.

6. Dereck Lively

While we are on the subject of Duke bigs— Dereck Lively is huge, mobile, and has immense defensive potential. The one scary point is he only scored 5.2 pts/game and 10.1 points per 40, which is a uniquely low scoring rate for a prospect drafted in round 1, let alone the lottery.

This makes him a tricky proposition— 54 of his 75 FG’s were dunks this year, and when he was not in dunking range he seemed extremely uncomfortable with the ball. So let’s compare him pace adjusted per 40 minutes to other past low scoring big prospects:

Granted, this is a cherrypick. It is mostly pre-draft seasons, except for Okafor, McGee, and Horford who stayed in school and went on to big sophomore breakouts. There is no guarantee Lively would break out if he stays in school for another year.

But the main point is that things are possible. Rudy Gobert is what we are hoping for with Lively, and this is not a perfect comparison since Rudy was playing professionally in France against more difficult competition. But he was almost 2 years older, and did not have an impressive scoring output or nearly the assist:TOV rate that Lively boasts.

There is also the prospect of a bigger and better Horford IF Lively develops his skills at an outlier rate. One minor feature is that he attempted threes this year. He only went 2/13 for Duke, but he also went 11/40 in AAU and there is a sliver of hope that he develops into a capable 3 point shooter in time.

And even though Lively scored low volume, he was highly efficient with an elite assist:TOV rate, indicative of a high basketball IQ that makes his defensive potential that much more tantalizing. It is difficult to think of any past prospects who were huge, mobile, and good passers that did not become good defensively in the NBA.

Fab Melo and Daniel Orton are a couple low scoring late 1st bigs who busted, but they badly pale in comparison to Lively. Orton was massively inefficient and undersized for center at 6’9.5, and Fab Melo was old and terrible and has a case for one of the worst first round picks of all time.

Of course this does not mean Lively necessarily will succeed, as the low scoring is still a scary flag that most of the success cases improved upon before testing the waters. But he definitely has big upside, and it’s difficult to find a truly scary cautionary tale that suggests this flaw makes him likely to fail.

7. Scoot Henderson

Ranking Scoot is super tricky. Most people believe he should be either 2nd or 3rd, and realistically he may be the right choice at #3. But he also may be the wrong choice at #3, as he is in a danger zone of failed hype cases.

If you look back over past drafts, the consensus #1 overalls tend to perform great in the NBA when they avoid injury, which is great news for Wemby. But the guys who flirted with #1 hype that end up falling out of favor tend to perform badly, which is bad news for Scoot.

It’s tough to reconcile how promising he looked between last season and his preseason meeting vs Wemby vs how disappointing he has looked this season in the G-League. To some extent he likely benefitted from blooming early physically with his super jacked frame. He also may be somewhat better suited for a secondary creator role, as he does cut well off the ball. Perhaps injuries are affecting him this year, or perhaps he is coasting with nothing to play for in the G-League.

Regardless of the reason, his on court performance is highly concerning and we do not need to cling onto his initial hype just because he had a few nice highlights vs Wemby. He also looked bad the second game before getting hurt, as he was 0/2 with 2 turnovers and his injury may have saved him from a stinker game to tarnish his initial performance.

It’s tough to know exactly where to place Scoot, but it is worth considering the possibility that his median outcome is merely something like Markelle Fultz.

8. Gradey Dick

Dick is an extremely good shooter making 40% 3P 85% FT. He also has good feel offensively, as he moves well off ball and rarely makes mistakes with a solid 1.7 assists vs 1.3 turnovers on the season.

The issue for him is defense, as he is not particularly good at it. He has decent wing height at an alleged 6’8 (will be interesting to see his actual combine measurements) and a good steal rate so he is not completely hopeless on this end, but as of right now he appears to be a liability.

But given how nicely he slides into any offense, it is worth gambling on his defense being decent enough.

9. Jett Howard

Jett has such a nice offensive package at 6’8 with great shooting and ball skills, but his defense is incredibly concerning. He rebounds like a tiny point guard and his steal rate is anemic.

Honestly I don’t have the best handle on Jett, but prospects with NBA dads historically overachieve and he fits a great mold if his defense isn’t terrible, so it’s tough to not rate him somewhat high.

10. Anthony Black

Black gives you a little bit of everything, he can handle, pass, defend, and somewhat shoot, making 30% 3P 70% FT on the season.

But the downside is that he is playing a moderate role offensively, and is not particularly efficient as he is fairly turnover prone.

He also is a gambly defensive player, who is prone to getting blown by, which seems to particularly happen often in clutch moments.

It’s easy to get really high or really low on him. Through one angle he is a wing with potential to be a two way creator who just needs his shooting to come around to have big potential.

On the other hand, is it worth gambling on the mediocre shooting ability of a guy who is so mistake prone on both ends? Maybe he is not good enough for the NBA in any regards.

Black is a high error bars guy, and it’s tough to know what he will amount to as a pro.

11. Brandin Podziemski
12. Jaime Jaquez

Typically this lottery is filled out with all freshmen, but let’s go against the grain and rate a couple of older guys with lower athleticism and higher feel.

I already wrote in depth about Jaime Jaquez, so let’s talk about Podz.

He offers a bit of everything, as he is a crafty offensive player who can handle, shoot, and pass, and plays under control with a low turnover rate. He also has a great motor as he is an excellent rebounder for a SG, and is actively defensive and makes intelligent rotations.

The downside is that he is not much of an athlete, and struggles to stay in front of quicker players. But he still has some sneaky potential on defense as a scrappy type who makes up for his physical limitations with IQ and effort. He is similar to Austin Reaves in this regard, except he is statistically more productive than Reaves was in college.

He also has sneaky potential on offense as he does a bit of everything. He is not quite as athletic, but has similarities to CJ McCollum statistically.

Granted, for a couple of non-athletes projected in round 2, I would like to see Jaquez and Podziemski measurements and perform at the draft combine scrimmages before committing to these rankings. But for now, why not mix things up a little bit and experiment with some hot takes.

13. Jarace Walker

On paper Jarace is highly attractive, as he is 6’8 with a thick frame and 7’2 wingspan, and offers a bit of everything statistically for the best college basketball team in the country.

But what is his calling card to success in the NBA? He is a capable shooter making 34.7% 3P, but that’s only on 2.7 3PA per game with a meager 63.5% FT. If he had 5 fewer 3P on the year, he’d be < 30% from 3 and his shooting would seem like a concerning flaw.

Defensively, he has great dimensions and his box score production of rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks suggests a positive defensive player in the NBA. But he is fairly slow, and quicker bigs can beat him off the dribble. And his defense seems a bit too gambly and he jumps for blocks too often. Overall his defense is difficult to read, maybe he is a + defensive players in the NBA or maybe he isn’t.

And if his defense is not a plus, then he may not be good because his shooting is likely not going to be a plus either and he is not a creator offensively. He is a nice role player with good passing and a positive A:TO, but his scoring volume and efficiency are both fairly pedestrian for a lottery pick.

Overall there is enough going on with Jarace for him to be reasonably interesting, but there is not a clear selling point to get too high on him.

14. Adem Bona

On paper, Bona looks fairly boring. He is an undersized 6’10 big who turns 20 this month, and averages a pedestrian 7.7 pts, 5.3 rebs, 0.7 ast, 0.6 stl, 1.7 blks in 22.9 minutes.

But he offers so much more than the box score suggests. He has exceptional mobility and athleticism for a big with a 7’4 wingspan, and covers a ton of ground defensively. And he has a good motor on defense and played a huge role for UCLA being the #2 kenpom defense in the country, as he made the Pac-12 all defense team.

His main appeal is his ability to cover ground, as he excels at blitzing the pick and roll and can hold his own switched onto smaller players.

He can be caught gambling on occasion and has struggled with fouls averaging 3.3 per game, so he is still a bit raw on defense. But overall his feel seems good and he makes a huge impact on that end. His main issue that somewhat limits his NBA defensive potential is his height, as he would ideally be an inch or two taller to be an elite rim protector. As is he is a capable rim protector, but his block rate is far from elite.

Offensively he is incredibly raw and lacks any true post up scoring ability, but is an efficient lob threat making 67.5% 2P. He is not the most skiller passer, but he occasionally makes a heady pass and 1.3 assists vs 2.3 turnovers per 40 is not bad for a defensive big.

He is in a somewhat limited mold as an unskilled 6’10 player. You are hoping for him to be something like Bam minus the creation ability, which would be a solidly useful player.

Bona is ranked 46th on ESPN’s latest mock, but I would not expect him to stay in round 2 by the time the draft rolls around.

15. Brice Sensabaugh

Brice is a bucket getter, as he put up a massive 26.6 pts/40 on 58.7% TS for Ohio State this season.

He does it mostly with elite shooting, where he made 40.5% 3P and 83% FT. He did not get to the rim often, but was shot well from mid-range making 49.7% on non-rim 2’s at a fairly high volume.

His questions come on passing and defense. In spite of his scoring prowess, he only averaged 1.9 assists per 40 vs 3.3 turnovers. Do you really want a guy to be creating offense if his game is to be constantly pulling up from mid-range and not passing the ball? Perhaps he is best used as more of a pure spot up guy in the NBA.

But in that case you would want to see him do well defensively. He is a thick 6’6 and had solid rebound numbers, and seems decently active, which gives him hope defensively. But he has low steal and block rates and his team defense was bad, so he may be a liability.

Personally I don’t have a strong opinion on his defense as I have not watched enough yet. But his stock swings heavily based on the dimensions he measures at the combine and how much you believe in his ability to be competent on D.

16. Cam Whitmore

Whitmore is a thick 6’7 at 232 pounds and a good athlete who loves to dunk the ball, and has a decent shot making 35% 3P 72.1% FT. He is also one of the youngest prospects in the class, turning 19 in July after the draft.

But he also plays somewhat like a smaller Jabari Parker, as he is often tries to create with pure brute force and is prone to tunnel vision with 1.1 assists vs 2.4 turnovers per 40. He also drew a curiously low 0.25 FT rate given his style and tools.

He is young enough for this to not be a death knell, and perhaps he can evolve into a Tobias Harris type of NBA player who is a coveted wing. And he is young enough to become even better than Tobias if things go really well.

He is a pure gamble on youth and tools. There is definitely enough there for him to have potential, but it comes attached with some chunky bust risk.

17. Keyonte George

There are a number of things to like about Key— he is a good shooter who made 79.3% FT and got off a huge 3PA rate attempting 6.9 per game and making 33.8%.

He is also tough and scrappy and rebounds well for his size, and showed some baseline PG skill with 3.9 assists per 40. Although the 4.0 turnovers per 40 are a firm reminder he is not a true point guard.

The issue with him is that he might be too small and too unathletic. He only had 3 dunks on the season, and while he played a huge role offensively, he struggled with turnovers and a 42.4% 2P due to his inability to get to the rim and finish.

The question for George is whether he has enough skill and feel to make things work, or if he is too limited to become an efficient pro.

18. Trayce Jackson-Davis

TJD is an undersized big who is already 23 but is coming off a monster NCAA season. He has some potential as a Brandon Clarke type with less touch around the rim but better passing.

He could be ranked ahead of some of the freshman above him. Once we get his official measurements and see how he looks in the combine scrimmages, it will be worth considering TJD as a huge sleeper.

19. Noah Clowney

Clowney is 6’10 and mobile, starts for one of the top 2 teams in the country, and does not turn 19 until after the draft in July.

He is efficient inside the arc shooting 67.7% from 2 with a passable shooting ability making 29.1% 3P and 64.5% FT on 3.3 3PA/game.

He is a fairly interesting gamble on youth and tools, and it will be interesting to see if he rises closer to draft time, especially if Alabama makes a big run in the tournament.

20. Julian Phillips

Phillips did not have the best season for Tennessee, but showed enough signals to be a clear NBA prospect. He is a decent athlete for a wing at 6’8, made 82% FT, and had a positive A:TO rate.

He still is not comfortable from 3 point range making 25% on 1.4 3PA/game, but his FT% suggests there is upside from 3 if he learns to extend his range.

He is rated 47th on ESPN’s latest mock, which seems far too low given how much better he is than some of toolsy gambles at wings in the 20’s such as GG Jackson or Maxwell Lewis.

21. Mo Gueye

Gueye is essentially a 7’ tall wing, as he moves well for his size and is fairly skilled for his size as well. He needs to improve his shooting, as he only made 27.5% 3P on scant volume and 67.4% FT this season (61.3% career), but he is a capable handler and passer and moves well for his size.

He did not start playing basketball until high school, so he has a bit of potential to become a Pascal Siakam type if he skill continues to develop. That’s worth a shot in the late first.

Next Tier

Going to stop ranking here because this is where things get fuzzy, but we can briefly discuss the guys to consider in the 20’s. Freshmen combo guards Tyrese Proctor and Amari Bailey have been coming on strong late in the season, and look like reasonable late 1st round candidates. They certainly appear to be better than lottery candidates Nick Smith Jr. and Jalen Hood-Schifino. Like NSJ and JHS, Proctor struggles to get to the rim but at least he makes 87% FT (albeit small sample of 70 FTA) and has a solid 4.5 assists vs 2.2 turnovers per 40. Bailey is a different brand who offers dynamic athleticism and defensive play while not being worse than NSJ or JHS offensively.

On the subject of Duke, I’m not really sure what to do with Dariq Whitehead or Mark Mitchell. Dariq you really need to buy the shooting, because otherwise he was so underwhelming as a freshman. Odds are he is a dud, but he is still 18 on draft night so it’s hard to be confident. Mitchell seems like a fairly pedestrian wing prospect, but pedestrian wings are good value in the late 1st/early 2nd if they become decent enough in the NBA.

Terquavion Smith had a good season for NC State, and the only questions for him are is he big enough for the NBA at 165 pounds, and is he good enough at shooting at 70% FT over two NCAA seasons. Seems like a reasonable late first gamble as a Bones Hyland type.

Zach Edey, Oscar Tshiebwe, and Oso Ighodaro are the super awesome NCAA players with unclear NBA roles. There is so much to love about Edey, as he has outlier scoring ability and feel for a 7’4 big. But he does not pass like Jokic and is even slower, is it worth overhauling your entire offense and defense to maximize his value even in the situations where he pans out? Maybe, but if he doesn’t hit his upside he is going to be a bad fit in the modern NBA.

Tshiebwe and Oso have a bit more hope as modern types as big wing/small big types. Tshiebwe might not be good enough on defense and Oso may not have enough shooting to play 4 and be too small for the 5. These guys are all super compelling if they can translate their games to the NBA, but it’s a major if for all of them.

Jalen Pickett is intriguing as an older PG prospect, although it didn’t help that he closed the season with a whimper scoring 11 pts, 1 assists, and 7 turnovers in Penn State’s tourney loss to Texas.

Kobe Bufkin reminisces of Jordan Poole, which will be seen as a positive by many. But Jordan Poole is overpaid and overrated. Is it really necessary to target Poole upside in round 1?

Leonard Miller and Sidy Cissoko are two of the prospects I have the worst grasp on. Maybe they are worth a late 1st, maybe they belong in round 2, I really don’t know. The G-League is tough enough to evaluate for the top prospects, for these secondary guys it’s nearly impossible to be accurate.

Jordan Walsh has been showing intriguing defensive potential in the tourney for a guy who just tourned 19 this month and has a 7’3 wingspan. But his offense is still really limited, so shrug.

Hard Passes

Thompson Twins

It’s really hard to say where they should go because they are 20 year olds playing high school competition. Maybe they should go late lotto, maybe they should go round 2. I don’t know, and I don’t care. Either way they will go higher than they should, and it’s not worth the energy of watching 20 year olds play high school kids to try to discern exactly how overrated they are.

Nick Smith Jr.

It’s hard to overstate how bad NSJ has been for Arkansas. He has essentially been a one dimensional scorer who is cold from everywhere, as he has made 40% 2P, 32.4% 3P, 73.5% FT.

In reality, he is likely a better shot maker than he has shown. He made 77.3% FT and 37.5% 3P in AAU. He is likely a decent shooter but not an elite one. But that’s a major problem considering his shot selection for Arkansas, where he has attempted 31 FG at the rim, 68 3PA 49 FTA, and 94 non rim 2’s.

This was consistent with how he played in high school and AAU, he just happened to make a higher rate and convince the world he has elite touch on floaters. Of course that is a ridiculous baseline reason to like a prospect, because no star guard has ever made it by solely on elite touch from mid-range.

Being able to score from mid-range is a valuable plan B when plan A of creating a layup or open 3 for yourself or a teammate fails. But as a plan A it is absolutely dreadful. Yet it seems to be all Nick Smith offers, as he averages a lukewarm 2.8 assists and 2.5 turnovers per 40— not too different from his AAU 3.0 assists and 2.3 turnovers per game.

He also is a joke on the glass, averaging an anemic 2.5 rebounds per game as he a skinny 6’5 and is likely going to get eviscerated on defense in the NBA.

In Arkansas’s upset of Kansas to go to the sweet 16, their comeback run in 2h came largely with him on the bench as he was relegated to 16 minutes played, his lowest amount as a starter this season.

It will be interesting to see how far he drops in the draft if he continues to underwhelm in the tournament. He doesn’t turn 19 until after the tourney in April and has the excuse of missing much of the season with an injury. But there is no real meat to his game, and at this point it is not clear that he even deserves to be drafted.

Jalen Hood-Schifino

JHS has all of the shot selection struggles of Nick Smith Jr., but at least he is bigger and offers more passing and defense and has more hope of being something in the NBA.

If you compare his freshman stats to Malcolm Brogdon, they are surprisingly similar. Except Brogdon didn’t go straight to the lottery, he made massive improvements to eventually become ACC player of the year and 2x ACC defensive player of the year while sporting career 87.6% FT. He then went in round 2 and continued to make improvements over the course of his NBA career to reach the player he is today.

JHS is an older freshman who turns 20 a few days before the draft, and only made 77.6% FT as a freshman. He fits a nice mold but he has a long way to go to provide a Brogdon level value. It’s tough to see how he is worth a lottery pick when a guy like Tyrese Proctor is currently rated in round 2.

GG Jackson

GG is the youngest player in the draft, but also the worst player in the draft, so it evens out.

Kris Murray

Murray is currently projected 19th overall, which would be insane if Keegan Murray didn’t exist.

He is a very old junior, turning 23 in August after the draft, which is basically a slightly old senior age.

He only played 42 minutes as a 20 year old freshman, which is tantamount to being a double redshirt which almost never happens to future NBA players.

As a 21 year old sophomore he was nowhere as good as Keegan, and now as a 22 year old junior he has still been nowhere as good as Keegan last year.

Kris in round 1 is grasping at twin gravity in hopes that he converges to the Keegan, but given that he has been extremely far behind in all 3 years of college with or without Keegan on the roster, it seems like a losing proposition.

Maxwell Lewis

Lewis’s Pepperdine team went 3-27 in WCC games that he played over his two seasons. More like Maxwell Loses.

He is fairly fluid for 6’7 and capable of shooting making 35.4% 3P and 79.1% FT for his career, but his flaw is that he is bad at playing basketball.

He is inefficient because he has major turnover issues, he is bad defensively, and he isn’t that young turning 21 in July after the draft. He had a terrible end to this season, so it is curious that he is still rated as a first rounder since he has such lukewarm strengths.

Wouldn’t be a surprise to see him drop to round 2 as the evaluation process happens and teams begin to realize that he is likely not good enough for the NBA.

Kel’el Ware

Kel’el is a lottery talent who seems doomed to failure based on his NCAA season at Oregon. He posted compelling box score stats for an athletic 18 year old 7 footer, and early on he seemed like he may be in contention for a top 5 pick if things went well.

But then they went the opposite direction, with his coach Dana Altman more or less giving up on him once conference play hit. He only played 10 minutes against Colorado with starting center N’Faly Dante out, and then was a DNP-CD the following game. He had another stretch where he played 9 total minutes in 3 games.

Now in the NIT, he has played more with multiple players out including Dante again, but is still averaging just 17.5 minutes off the bench with triple redshirt Lok Wur starting ahead of him and playing more minutes.

His main issue seems to be that he is absolutely clueless in pick and roll defense, and who knows what else is going on behind the scenes for his coach to have turned on him like this. It is difficult to think of a past hyped prospect who got buried so badly on the bench like this and went on to succeed in the NBA.

Who knows if he will enter the draft or transfer elsewhere to find a bigger role. It will likely be tempting to bite on his talent in round 2 still he doesn’t turn 19 until after the season in April, but historically it is difficult to think of any situation where a prospect fallen from grace like this has been a good buy low in the draft. He has shades of Harry Giles at Duke.