How Athletic is Scoot Henderson?

The draft is full of nuances, as it is extremely difficult to discern who the best players are, how they will translate to the NBA, and how they will develop over time. What is relatively easier to discern is who is the most athletic, as it is typically the guys who run the fastest and jump the highest.

But even athleticism has its nuances that can lead to occasional inaccurate assessments in scouting reports. Mario Hezonja and Emmanuel Mudiay were pitched as high level athletes who proved to be not so athletic in the NBA and flopped. Conversely, Jonathan Givony wrote that James Harden is “likely to be considered a below average athlete for the NBA level. His first step and pure explosiveness are nothing to write home about.”

Even after his NBA peak, it is not clear if Givony was necessarily wrong and to what extent. Harden functionally performed like an elite athlete, but not through traditional means. His handle played a large role, and it is not clear whether his strength and coordination should count, and to what extent. Ability to change direction and body control are some part of athleticism, but how should they be weighted vs. explosiveness and speed? There is no clear consensus on twitter, although a number of comments mentioned that he had an elite first step which directly disagrees with Givony’s pre-draft assessment.

Harden is the perfect example as to how a straightforward trait like athleticism can be fuzzy to assess for a player with a unique distribution. It is an easier point for scouting reports to get right, but it can be wrongfully assessed from time to time as there are different ways in which athleticism manifests.

How Athletic is Scoot?

Recently I tweeted that Scoot is a B+ athlete, and it got 400k views, far more than my typical tweet. But it only got 112 likes, which is approximately 1 like per every 3600 views. That is 36 times less than the average ratio of 1 like per 100 views. The views on this tweet were largely hate views, as this sentiment riled up the masses.

This is interesting because it is commonly accepted that he is not a generational athlete, and being a B+ level athlete is not that far below being an A level athlete. But it is enough to derail any case that he is a generational prospect, which is likely why most people want to believe it is crazy talk.

Before we dive in, let’s define athleticism to be superior movement ability to create advantages (or negate/prevent disadvantages) on the court. Strength should be counted separately for efficient analysis, as it is helpful in a number of ways, but it is different from what is typically considered athleticism. If it counts, that means Enes Kanter is an underrated athlete, and nobody wants to live in a world where that is the case.

How Can Athleticism be Measured?

It is difficult to gauge with precision, but we can observe the aspects of the game that most functionally depend on athleticism: dunking, penetration, rim finishing, and defense.

Defense is hardest to measure, but Scoot’s defense is not good as he regularly gets blown by. This may be due to lack of effort and technique rather than limited mobility, but regardless the functionality is currently not there.

Dunking is the easiest to measure because statistics are available on that. Granted, it can only be compared to past NCAA players who are playing a lower level of competition. But the G-League was incredibly offensive friendly this year as most teams played small lineups, and with little rim protection in the way it is difficult to see the context being notably more difficult to rack up dunks than NCAA.

Here is how his dunk stats per 100 possessions compare to other recent athletic guard prospects drafted top 10:

The list is topped by the truly elite athletes in Wall and Morant. Everybody else is a notch lower.

The issue for Scoot is not only is he near the bottom of the list, but he has by far the most missed dunks of the group. The rest of this group collectively made 117 dunks and missed 8. Scoot made 15 dunks and missed 7.

Scoot is an *extremely* ambitious dunker, and he is not near the bottom of the list for lack of trying. These numbers do not include an offensive foul for possibly the most ambitious dunk attempt in basketball history, where he tried to dunk on a defender outside of the charge circle from half a step inside the free throw line.

His one big highlight dunk was an ambitious attempt that most smaller guards would try to lay in, which is what makes it impressive. But he barely got it in, and attempts like this typically ended up in the miss pile as he does not have the athleticism to dunk on opponents with consistency. The rest of his dunks were mostly uncontested dunks in transition.

Through this lens, his athleticism looks at least good and possibly even great, but likely not elite.

Penetration and Finishing

These two go hand in hand, and are more difficult to measure. But the best indicator is being able to create and finish an unassisted rim attempt against a set defense (i.e. not transition + not putbacks). For NCAA this can be approximated with play by play data compiled at hoop-math.com, but for G-League these numbers are not readily available.

For an approximate estimate, I manually went through 8 of Scoot’s games. 7 were available on youtube, and his final game of the season vs College Park physically downloaded. In those 8 games he averaged 33.4 minutes and 21.6 points, and he created and finished his own shot against a halfcourt setting 7 times. Video evidence: One Two Three Four Five Six Seven

This does not include two scores off the dribble that were assisted, as well as one off an offensive rebound. These would not count in the NCAA analysis either.

7 makes in 267 minutes averages out to 1.05 makes per 40, which puts him in line with Cason Wallace (1.09) and Amari Bailey (1.09) for self creating at the rim, below Kobe Bufkin (1.25), and above Keyonte George (0.76), Nick Smith (0.73), and Jalen Hood Schifino (0.6).

In terms of past prospects, this puts him far behind De’Aaron Fox (2.1), Ja Morant (2.09), and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (1.89). He is slightly behind Markelle Fultz (1.21).

Granted, this is an extremely quick and dirty analysis. This is only for 8 of his games, and this is a more awkward cross league comparison than pure dunks.

But these are not pace adjusted, which is extremely friendly to Scoot. G-League Ignite averaged 83.6 possessions per 40, compared to 67.1 for the average NCAA team who had a 30 second shot clock.

Further, this is a sample of games where he overperformed as a volume scorer. He averaged 25.9 points and 8.7 2P per 40 in these 8 games, compared to 22.0 pts and 6.9 2P per 40 in his other 19 games. This sample should be denser with creation than average, and his number may be lower with the full sample.

Again, factoring that the G-League was incredibly offensive friendly this year, it is difficult to argue that he would have done notably better playing NCAA basketball. Even if he would have done slightly better, he is still well below the elite slashing tier of Fox, Morant, and Shai.

Why Did Scoot Struggle to Self Create at the Rim?

This is the elusive question. Part of it is that his first step is good and possibly great, but not elite as his explosiveness is not quite nuclear. The other part is that he has an inordinate amount of grotesque blown tire finishes at the rim.

It’s not just that he misses sometimes, he completely bricks in a way that an elite athlete should not. Clang Clang Clang Air Sadder Air. Scoot has more misses at the rim that are way off than self created makes. This is extremely scary.

Blending Everything Together

There is not a single angle from which Scoot appears to be an exceptional athlete.

His dunk rate implies a high level of athleticism, but not quite elite. And it is complicated by his inordinate amount of missed dunks.

Then his ability to self create at the rim with penetration implies that he is a merely decent athlete. Examination of the film reveals a number of frighteningly graceless bricks at the rim.

It is difficult to pinpoint the exact root of Scoot’s relentless rim bricking, but it is likely tied to athleticism in some way. Regardless, he is functionally performing like a pedestrian athlete in these situations.

Even if his first step is A grade, there is some hitch in his finishing ability that significantly reduces the effectiveness of his penetration ability. Given that his projected role is as a high volume penetrator, this is a problem.

What About His Strength?

It could be argued that this analysis conveniently disregards Scoot’s strength as a part of athleticism, and he is as strong as it gets for a guard prospect.

But one of the main values of the strength is finishing in traffic at the rim, and Scoot struggles in spite of being thick and jacked.

It’s also helpful for defense, and gives him upside to improve over his current lackluster D. He uses his strength to rebound well for his size, and if his offense disappoints he can focus his efforts on becoming a good defensive player like Markelle Fultz or Dennis Smith Jr.

His strength is a nice feature to have and will help him stick in the league, but it is not likely to solve his issue of underwhelming rim creation that limits his upside.

How Does This Affect his Projection?

If we are comparing Scoot to prime Derrick Rose, Ja Morant, John Wall, or Russell Westbrook, he has at least a slightly worse first step, and vastly inferior rim finishing. He needs an advantage to offset this to have significant upside, but he is not a better passer or defensive player, which leaves his shooting as his only path to success.

If his shooting comes around, he has a versatile shot that is effective off the dribble. But right now his shooting is merely decent, making 27.7% 3P and 76.1% FT in his two seasons for G League Ignite.

There is currently not a single hot spot for him on the court, and 6’2 guys do not become all-stars with lukewarm scoring. He needs to maximize his shooting to make a major impact in the NBA.

But overachieving as a shooter is the easiest path to NBA success for any prospect, and it is not something you want to rely on for a top 3 pick.

Where Should Scoot Rank in This Class?

Cason Wallace is a textbook B athlete, and they have approximately the same ability to self create at the rim. Scoot can create a higher volume of offense with his passing from his superior first step, so we can round his athleticism up to B+ to not be too harsh.

But Cason is significantly better on defense, largely due to 2” taller and better feel. But that height and feel can also translate to offense, and they are in a similar tier as shooters. It’s difficult to see a major advantage for Scoot that makes him the better prospect.

They are in a similar tier overall, but Cason seems better. He doesn’t have any odd flaws in his game, and he is a better mold with lower friction as he fits in a wider range of NBA lineups.

Other than that, the comparisons are not as straightforward with vastly different players. But Cason is projected #13 overall in ESPN’s latest mock— it’s not like he is significantly better than the rest of the class outside of the top 2. I personally give him the edge at #3 overall, but it is by a thin margin as he is the top of a broad tier.

There are a handful of other prospects that could be argued above Scoot. But it is difficult to make those arguments with conviction, and not really necessary given how high the market is on Scoot. The correct play should be to take Brandon Miller at #2 and then trade down from #3.

If the Magic are offering #6 and #11 for #3, that should be turbo accepted to get two pulls on prospects who are in the same tier as Scoot for the price of one. Or if that’s not on the table but the Jazz offer #9 and #16 or Houston offers #4 and #20, all of those trades are easy do’s.

Bottom Line

There is a reason why Scoot has slipped behind Brandon Miller in consensus rankings. He did not impose his athleticism on the G-League as expected. And for a 6’2 guy without exceptional skill or feel, that puts a major damper on his upside and adds downside risk.

There is also a reason why approximately half of #2 or #3 picks end up either busting or having bland careers, and it is often because of some nuance that makes them less than advertised.

In this case, there is a hitch in the functionality of Scoot’s athleticism that affects his rim finishing off the dribble in traffic without any special strength to offset it. Perhaps he develops his skill and finds a way to become good in spite of this, but he is at serious risk of underwhelming.

It should not be a hot take to consider Scoot a B+ athlete. The real hot take is ignoring his flaws and calling him a generational prospect like the vast majority of social media.