The draft is full of nuances, as it is extremely difficult to discern who the best players are, how they will translate to the NBA, and how they will develop over time.
For me, the scariest thing about Scoot is a complete lack of improvement with regards to impact stats from year one with Ignite to year two. For "generational" or top tier players, the step between 18 yrs old and 19 is generally a big one, but in his case there's almost no change in net rating, WS, WS/40, etc... In some cases, he actually got a little worse. To have the worst impact stats amongst starters on a team with a losing record is a big red flag.
In fairness I don't think the losing record is a huge deal since GLI is a prospect team in an adult league and always has a losing record.
But the lack of improvement was a big disappointment. I was expecting a big leap forward and ready to embrace him, and then he took a bit of a step back. Perhaps it was in part attributable to injuries, but he looked flat out there.
Re: Fultz, Scoot probably should have a better 3 point shot but he is smaller and not as talented overall so it might even out. It's a reasonable median comp, and not even that pessimistic since Fultz was half-decent last season.
Why do you think people remain so high on Scoot? Is it bc they don't want to be wrong? Bc he's supposedly the only threat to Wemby? Bc Twitter treats him like a sure thing, when I think he's far from it.
Because it's more fun to buy the hype than to be skeptical.
Also it was easy to get invested when lived up to the hype in that one Wemby matchup that everybody watched.
Don't think too many people were heavily scrutinizing his G-League film after that. And even if they did, they already liked him anyway and viewed it through a not so critical lens
Scoot has terrible short area quickness. I have watched so many clips of him failing to turn the corner and instead going for the trusty pull up jumper.
This is what stops him from all-nba or even all-star potential. He'll need to be truly elite at that pull up from three to be a fringe all-star.
He has huge hands, he's strong and fast with a running start, he should be a defender if he puts effort into it. He has circus huge hands. much like kawhi, his giant hands get in the way of his three point shot. Chip Engelland seemingly had Kawhi make his hand go soft after he cocked it into the pocket, so that it doesn't change the trajectory he's going for. Scoot will need a similar adjustment.
He has a nice handle, he has solid feel, and he is a ferocious competitor. I think he and Brandon Miller both have "solid starter" as a most common outcome.
The "if puts effort into D" is such a big asterisk for Scoot though. His effort in G-League was disgusting, and most good defensive players don't turn it on and off like that. And most high usage little guys are at least slightly negative on D.
He's probably going to be bad on D, and you are really hoping that he's only slightly below average.
Thanks Dean. Your analysis helped me take Mobley with confidence over Green and to pass on trading up for Cade in a deep dynasty league (should be said I intuited his superiority also). As it so happens I have the third pick this year and while you have again helped me form a skeptical view of Scoot I'm still working to get a good sense for Miller, who seems to be a kind of plus (size, shooting, self creation) and minus (loose handle, poor mid range, problems finishing, also not elite athletically) prospect. I'd be very interested in further analysis of his game within the context of other/past top tier prospects.
I'll try to do a post on Miller since it seems to be a scarce position on social media that he is actually #2. I don't believe in him with all of my heart, but he does have some pretty good stat comps with Paul George, Klay Thompson, and Gordon Hayward all popping up in his kenpom top 10.
The downside is that I would have easily taken Jabari Smith above him, and Jabari had a not so great rookie year. But there's still plenty of time for Jabari to right the ship, so it's likely not correct to react too hard.
Thanks Dean. Yeah i'd love to read it. Not to make everything about my dynasty team which i know is inherently annoying but ive wondered if the smart move (based off of similar good-but-not-great impressions) is to trade down for two lower picks and try to grab a Taylor Hendricks and a Cason Wallace or something along those lines. In any event ill look out for that post!
Taylor Hendricks is not really an exciting fantasy player. His stats are blah. His main appeal is that he is the type of player who fits into any lineup and is switchable on defense.
Cason Wallace + Anthony Black probably the best trade down targets based on #s. Maybe Jarace Walker or Gradey Dick.
We should probably put to bed this canard that the G-League is better competition than high level college basketball. It's not. Players go there to practice individual skills. Whatever coaching there is dedicates itself mostly to individual development (as it should), and top tier college defenses and schemes blow G-League away. There's probably a reason no Ignite player has come into the NBA anywhere prepared for its rigors.
It is better competition, but I think it gets overstated by how much. Especially once you consider how friendly it is to offensive numbers.
I wouldn’t say that NCAA necessarily has better coaching. Most NCAA coaches are fairly rudimentary. It’s just harder bc there is less spacing with shorter arc and more big ball
I didn't watch Harden in college but I've always felt like he's an underrated athlete, and I don't just mean that his first step or deceleration or strength is great. He always had a decent amount of dunks in traffic, including on some very good rim protectors, and obviously he was just generally a really good rim finisher. It could be that his strength was a big part of that, enabling him to be explosive even through contact, and he benefited a lot from getting lots of relatively clean looks due to his handle and general slashing ability, but I definitely don't think he was a subpar athlete even if we're just talking about jumping.
Harden was insane in college. Don’t have pbp to estimate rim creation, but I’d reckon he got there often.
It makes sense he was underrated as an athlete bc he does all of the things that an athletic guard should do.
It’s not always clear what traits are responsible for various athletic outcomes, but as long as the desired outcomes are occurring that player should be considered athletic
I've seen his college stats, they are indeed insane. Given his 2P% and FTA he must've lived at the rim.
I totally agree with your last two sentences. I think relying on the eye test to determine athleticism is prone to bias, and stats are a really important part of evaluating athleticism. A lot of people have been saying that competition level is irrelevant to evaluating athleticism regarding criticism of the Thompson twins, but I don't think that's true. It's actually very important how good the opponents are. There have been so many prospects who looked way more athletic before they got to the NBA because they were going against subpar competition. I think the idea that Scoot and the Thompson twins are all going to be all-time level athletes is extremely optimistic.
If I cared about clicks I would generate content that people like by talking about Scoot being amazing. I don’t make any money from this nor am I seeking a job.
It's just that you're very obviously beating a strawman to death for clicks. Nobody thinks Scoot is going to be good because of dunking. Anyone who takes basketball scouting and analysis seriously isn't prioritizing looking at what is going to amount to less than 100 points per season for all these guys you list. That's not where basketball games are won and lost. I get that maybe some twitter guys posting highlight dunks on your feed has been getting under your skin but thats not at all why he is projected as #2 in the draft.
This isn't beating the same issue to death. Intuitively I felt something was missing, and wanted to dig deeper to pinpoint the specific issue.
Maybe the analysis did not resonate with you, but this is stuff that I have been paying attention to for years. It's a major reason why I liked De'Aaron Fox, Shai Gilgeous, and Ja Morant. It's not everything, but there isn't that much to love about Scoot outside of his alleged creation ability.
If you aren't convinced, that's fine. You are entitled to your own opinion. We'll see how he does in the NBA a few years down the road.
@ CH: So...serious question...what skill(s) DO people think are going to make him good at basketball? Mostly I hear people say he is very strong and a 'born winner' but dont hear much that is more specific than that.
He's got the potential to be someone who can break down a defense in the half court with a threat to score and pass. Something than Brandon Miller does not offer.
I have yet to see anything in Brandon Millers tape in games or workout footage that I don't think they could get from putting a jersey on 36 year old Marvin Williams and getting him in shape. He's 6'9 and can hit some 3 pointers. He can't dribble and he isn't athletic so he won't be doing anything special in the half court. Is that seriously getting anyone excited in 2023 lol
For me, the scariest thing about Scoot is a complete lack of improvement with regards to impact stats from year one with Ignite to year two. For "generational" or top tier players, the step between 18 yrs old and 19 is generally a big one, but in his case there's almost no change in net rating, WS, WS/40, etc... In some cases, he actually got a little worse. To have the worst impact stats amongst starters on a team with a losing record is a big red flag.
I like the Fultz comp-- he was the first guy I thought of after a deeper dive into Scoot.
In fairness I don't think the losing record is a huge deal since GLI is a prospect team in an adult league and always has a losing record.
But the lack of improvement was a big disappointment. I was expecting a big leap forward and ready to embrace him, and then he took a bit of a step back. Perhaps it was in part attributable to injuries, but he looked flat out there.
Re: Fultz, Scoot probably should have a better 3 point shot but he is smaller and not as talented overall so it might even out. It's a reasonable median comp, and not even that pessimistic since Fultz was half-decent last season.
Why do you think people remain so high on Scoot? Is it bc they don't want to be wrong? Bc he's supposedly the only threat to Wemby? Bc Twitter treats him like a sure thing, when I think he's far from it.
Because it's more fun to buy the hype than to be skeptical.
Also it was easy to get invested when lived up to the hype in that one Wemby matchup that everybody watched.
Don't think too many people were heavily scrutinizing his G-League film after that. And even if they did, they already liked him anyway and viewed it through a not so critical lens
Scoot has terrible short area quickness. I have watched so many clips of him failing to turn the corner and instead going for the trusty pull up jumper.
This is what stops him from all-nba or even all-star potential. He'll need to be truly elite at that pull up from three to be a fringe all-star.
He has huge hands, he's strong and fast with a running start, he should be a defender if he puts effort into it. He has circus huge hands. much like kawhi, his giant hands get in the way of his three point shot. Chip Engelland seemingly had Kawhi make his hand go soft after he cocked it into the pocket, so that it doesn't change the trajectory he's going for. Scoot will need a similar adjustment.
He has a nice handle, he has solid feel, and he is a ferocious competitor. I think he and Brandon Miller both have "solid starter" as a most common outcome.
Good breakdown. Agree with all points.
The "if puts effort into D" is such a big asterisk for Scoot though. His effort in G-League was disgusting, and most good defensive players don't turn it on and off like that. And most high usage little guys are at least slightly negative on D.
He's probably going to be bad on D, and you are really hoping that he's only slightly below average.
Thanks Dean. Your analysis helped me take Mobley with confidence over Green and to pass on trading up for Cade in a deep dynasty league (should be said I intuited his superiority also). As it so happens I have the third pick this year and while you have again helped me form a skeptical view of Scoot I'm still working to get a good sense for Miller, who seems to be a kind of plus (size, shooting, self creation) and minus (loose handle, poor mid range, problems finishing, also not elite athletically) prospect. I'd be very interested in further analysis of his game within the context of other/past top tier prospects.
Glad I was able to help!
I'll try to do a post on Miller since it seems to be a scarce position on social media that he is actually #2. I don't believe in him with all of my heart, but he does have some pretty good stat comps with Paul George, Klay Thompson, and Gordon Hayward all popping up in his kenpom top 10.
The downside is that I would have easily taken Jabari Smith above him, and Jabari had a not so great rookie year. But there's still plenty of time for Jabari to right the ship, so it's likely not correct to react too hard.
Thanks Dean. Yeah i'd love to read it. Not to make everything about my dynasty team which i know is inherently annoying but ive wondered if the smart move (based off of similar good-but-not-great impressions) is to trade down for two lower picks and try to grab a Taylor Hendricks and a Cason Wallace or something along those lines. In any event ill look out for that post!
Taylor Hendricks is not really an exciting fantasy player. His stats are blah. His main appeal is that he is the type of player who fits into any lineup and is switchable on defense.
Cason Wallace + Anthony Black probably the best trade down targets based on #s. Maybe Jarace Walker or Gradey Dick.
Are you going to release a final big board before the draft? If so, roughly when?
Probably day of or day before
We should probably put to bed this canard that the G-League is better competition than high level college basketball. It's not. Players go there to practice individual skills. Whatever coaching there is dedicates itself mostly to individual development (as it should), and top tier college defenses and schemes blow G-League away. There's probably a reason no Ignite player has come into the NBA anywhere prepared for its rigors.
It is better competition, but I think it gets overstated by how much. Especially once you consider how friendly it is to offensive numbers.
I wouldn’t say that NCAA necessarily has better coaching. Most NCAA coaches are fairly rudimentary. It’s just harder bc there is less spacing with shorter arc and more big ball
I didn't watch Harden in college but I've always felt like he's an underrated athlete, and I don't just mean that his first step or deceleration or strength is great. He always had a decent amount of dunks in traffic, including on some very good rim protectors, and obviously he was just generally a really good rim finisher. It could be that his strength was a big part of that, enabling him to be explosive even through contact, and he benefited a lot from getting lots of relatively clean looks due to his handle and general slashing ability, but I definitely don't think he was a subpar athlete even if we're just talking about jumping.
Harden was insane in college. Don’t have pbp to estimate rim creation, but I’d reckon he got there often.
It makes sense he was underrated as an athlete bc he does all of the things that an athletic guard should do.
It’s not always clear what traits are responsible for various athletic outcomes, but as long as the desired outcomes are occurring that player should be considered athletic
I've seen his college stats, they are indeed insane. Given his 2P% and FTA he must've lived at the rim.
I totally agree with your last two sentences. I think relying on the eye test to determine athleticism is prone to bias, and stats are a really important part of evaluating athleticism. A lot of people have been saying that competition level is irrelevant to evaluating athleticism regarding criticism of the Thompson twins, but I don't think that's true. It's actually very important how good the opponents are. There have been so many prospects who looked way more athletic before they got to the NBA because they were going against subpar competition. I think the idea that Scoot and the Thompson twins are all going to be all-time level athletes is extremely optimistic.
at least you are being transparent when you say that Scoot hate = clicks
This analysis is about as shallow as if I said Wemby is overrated as a scoring prospect because he shoots 28% from 3.
If I cared about clicks I would generate content that people like by talking about Scoot being amazing. I don’t make any money from this nor am I seeking a job.
It's just that you're very obviously beating a strawman to death for clicks. Nobody thinks Scoot is going to be good because of dunking. Anyone who takes basketball scouting and analysis seriously isn't prioritizing looking at what is going to amount to less than 100 points per season for all these guys you list. That's not where basketball games are won and lost. I get that maybe some twitter guys posting highlight dunks on your feed has been getting under your skin but thats not at all why he is projected as #2 in the draft.
This isn't beating the same issue to death. Intuitively I felt something was missing, and wanted to dig deeper to pinpoint the specific issue.
Maybe the analysis did not resonate with you, but this is stuff that I have been paying attention to for years. It's a major reason why I liked De'Aaron Fox, Shai Gilgeous, and Ja Morant. It's not everything, but there isn't that much to love about Scoot outside of his alleged creation ability.
If you aren't convinced, that's fine. You are entitled to your own opinion. We'll see how he does in the NBA a few years down the road.
Lol
@ CH: So...serious question...what skill(s) DO people think are going to make him good at basketball? Mostly I hear people say he is very strong and a 'born winner' but dont hear much that is more specific than that.
He's got the potential to be someone who can break down a defense in the half court with a threat to score and pass. Something than Brandon Miller does not offer.
I have yet to see anything in Brandon Millers tape in games or workout footage that I don't think they could get from putting a jersey on 36 year old Marvin Williams and getting him in shape. He's 6'9 and can hit some 3 pointers. He can't dribble and he isn't athletic so he won't be doing anything special in the half court. Is that seriously getting anyone excited in 2023 lol
Why are you taking it so personally?