Which 2023 Prospects Are Best Outside of Top 3? Part 2

Part 1 has already been released, and now we are onto Part 2 which could be taken synonymously with Tier 2, as this group is a cut below the prior one in my eyes. In other words, these are the best prospects outside of the top 10 on my personal board.

Jett Howard

From a talent perspective, Jett belongs in the quartet of wings with Dick, Black, Walker, and Hendricks. He is 6’8 and an excellent shooter who can handle and pass and fits an excellent mold for modern NBA offenses.

But he has one giant gaping flaw which is that he is extremely soft and plays with a lackluster motor. In spite of being 6’8, he rebounded like he was 5’8 with a dismal 2.8 rebounds per game in 31.8 minutes. He also has a meager steal rate and it is worth seriously fretting over whether he has the toughness and drive to make it the NBA.

The point working in his favor is that prospects with NBA dads tend to overachieve in the NBA, and he is the son of Juwan Howard. Growing up in a financially stable family and being raised on basketball is an advantageous foundation. You can see the effects in his game to some extent, as he is capable of moving his feet defensively with decent fundamentals.

In spite of his terrible box score indicators, it is not hard to see Jett being passable on D simply because he is 6’8 and basketball is in both his DNA and his nurture from a young age. He is in such a good NBA mold, he does not need all that much to go right to have a successful career.

Not every NBA son overachieves, and perhaps Jett is a lazy, entitled brat who provides a negative example to the equation. If nothing else his soft rebounding is an outlier negative wart, that adds a degree of bust risk that keeps him a tier below the other wings of similar talent. On the flipside, his height, skill set, mold, and NBA dad could be enough for him to be a quality NBA player, and he could be decent value if he slides out of the lottery.

Jaime Jaquez

The knock on Jaquez is that he may not be athletic enough for the NBA. He measured 6’6 with 6’9.5 wingspan, which are low end dimensions for SF but his lateral mobility makes him best suited to guard PF’s, so he may be stuck without a defensive niche in the NBA.

This was also a concern for Draymond Green, and the lesson in these situations tends to be that IQ and feel for the game tends to find a way. And Jaquez has excellent feel for the game.

Also Jaquez isn’t THAT unathletic. He had 17 dunks on the season this past year, and occasionally was able to get up for a block against the top bigs in Pac-12. He is a clear favorite to be a positive defensive player in the NBA.

The question is: how much does he provide offensively. He only shot 32.8% 3P, 73.7% FT in his NCAA career, and his shooting is on the fringe where he needs improvement to have a solid NBA payoff.

His other issue is how much his scoring translates. Much of his NCAA scoring came from bullying small college bigs and mid-range shooting, which is not ideal for NBA. He may get relegated to a low usage role in the NBA. But he is crafty and a good passer, so he may find a way to surprise on offense.

He was a 4 year starter for UCLA and helped turn around a program in the dumps to one of the top teams in the country. He is a hooper and a winner, and a solid bet to find an NBA niche.

He does not have upside in a traditional sense, and most likely he will be a role player like Jared Dudley or PJ Tucker. That may not be thrilling to most, but teams need guys like this and it is better than gambling on a likely bust just in case he develops into an extremely flawed “star.”

Further, those are not hard caps to Jaquez upside. His pre-draft profile has similar knocks to Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green, and while he is unlikely to follow their same development trajectory it would not be a shock if he finds a way to overachieve in his own rite.

He may not be worth a top 10 pick given his age and pedestrian physical profile, but once the quality young guys are all off the board it is difficult to argue against flocking to the stability of Jaquez.

Bilal Coulibaly

Victor Wembanyama’s teammate has come out of nowhere to fly up draft boards. After starting the season in the pathetic baby French League, he rose up to the big team and played a prominent role in their playoff run.

His main appeal is his excellent dimensions as he measured 6’8 with 7’2.25 wingspan, and is super young as he does not turn 19 until a month after the draft in July. He moves well and seems to have a good first step, so it is easy to see the upside appeal.

The issue is that he simply did not do enough on the court to make his goodness as a basketball player obvious. He averaged 20.2 minutes, 6.1 points, 3.1 rebs, 1 ast, 1.1 tovs, and 0.9 stls on the season. But at the same time, nothing is broken about him. He has a passable shot as he made 33.6% 3P, 70.5% FT (counting his baby league numbers), his A:TO rate is close to 1:1, he gets steals, he can somewhat defend the perimeter, and in spite of his low usage he showed an surprising ability to get to the rim off the dribble in the playoffs.

He is skinny now, but if his frame fills out and his skills develop at a good rate, it is easy to see an attractive upside tail coming to fruition.

But before we get drunk on the Coulaid, it is bear in mind that he is not currently on a star trajectory. The most similar player who played Jeep Elite at a young age is Nicolas Batum. He played two seasons in Jeep Elite before getting drafted, and they sandwich Coulibaly from an age perspective. Numbers pace adjusted per 40:

Batum was better when he was 5 months younger, as he was a more cerebral passer and slightly better scorer. Then when he was 7 months older, he was much better.

They have similar dimensions. You could argue that maybe Coulibaly is a better athlete, but Batum was described as a “freakish” athlete by DraftExpress and his higher rebound and block rates suggest that Coulibaly is not a superior leaper.

Batum was a fringey shooting prospect who became a good one in the NBA making 36.5% 3P 83.3% FT over his career.

Coulibaly is not way behind Batum, but he is obviously a lower tier, and far from a guarantee to develop as well as a shooter. That said, he could plausibly develop in other ways better than Batum, who was immediately good in the NBA and then failed to take off as he peaked in his early-mid 20’s.

This is only one comp and does not mean everything, but if Coulibaly is a poor man’s Batum and his shooting does not come around, that could amount to a bust or fringey rotation outcome. His numbers and dimensions are also not particularly better than Damien Inglis who could not get on the court, although he played for a better team and seems more athletic.

That said, it is plausible that he finds his own route to being similar to Batum or better. Giannis was nowhere near Batum statistically pre-draft, but took exception to being compared to him and ended up massively clearing him in the NBA.

The downside is that Giannis is the only mystery box international to ever become good at all in the NBA, and we may go another 100 drafts without seeing another international prospect without strong stats become as good as Giannis. The next one who hits will probably be closer to a Jaylen Brown level of goodness, which is nice but not something to aggressively gamble for.

This makes it difficult to fully embrace Coulibaly, as he appears on track to either bust or become a mundane rotation player. But it does not feel right to strongly dislike him either. He is in a good mold, and there is no clear obstacle in his path towards becoming a solidly useful or even good player with quality development.

Cam Whitmore

Whitmore has a polarizing profile with big strengths and big weaknesses. He is 6’7 and built like a tank, and super athletic as he dunked everything and got to the rim against set defenses far more than his freshman peers. He moves well defensively, and his athleticism makes him a good isolation defensive player. He is also one of the youngest prospects in the class, not turning 19 until a few days after the draft.

If the draft was for 1 on 1 basketball, Whitmore would be in the conversation for #1 overall. Unfortunately, the NBA is a 5 on 5 sport and Whitmore does not grasp the concept of playing within a team. He is a black hole offensively who rarely passes, and has poor IQ as an off ball defender. This is exacerbated by having short arms with an 6’8.5” wingspan.

It’s difficult to think of a bowling ball shaped athlete who thrived on attacking the rim that succeeded in the NBA. Here are a couple of comps that could be applied. Freshman stats per 70 possessions.

The immediate issue with Whitmore is his microscopic assist rate. Assists have a strong correlation with basketball IQ, and an A:TO rate of < 0.5 is a danger zone for a wing. The other flaw is that for such a bulldozer he had a fairly lackluster FT rate, that gets absolutely blown out by Maggette who made a living at the line. While these would be solid outcomes for mid-lottery picks, they aren’t the most thrilling upside outcomes and Whitmore being a worse player with a major red flag that they lack is not the most promising start.

Assist to turnover rate is a major predictor for small NCAA bigs converting to NBA wings, and the success cases of guys with a ratio < 0.6 are few and far between. The big success story is Kevin Durant, who was even younger than Whitmore as a freshman and was insanely good outside of that one flaw in his profile.

Durant also had the cheat code of a 7’5 wingspan that enabled him to shoot over players at will, which is less cerebrally demanding than frequently attacking the rim and making split second decisions.

Since that draft, here are the non-centers who have been drafted top 10 with an A:TO < 0.6. Per 70 poss:

This group is not good. These are mostly one and dones, except for Derrick Williams who stayed for a sophomore season, made a huge leap raising his BPM to 11.3, and then busted in the NBA anyway.

The one success story here is Julius Randle. He was a non-shooter in college who developed into a decent NBA shooter, as well as a capable passer who has averaged 4.6 assists per game thus far in his Knicks career. I was low on Randle pre-draft for his tunnel vision and subpar defensive instincts, and ranked him 22nd on my board.

In retrospect, I likely should have ranked Randle a few spots higher, but not too many spots higher. He’s not the type of player you need to lose sleep over missing out on, especially since the archetype comes with significant bust risk. And he took a while to succeed— the Lakers let him walk for nothing after his rookie deal expired, and the Pelicans were able to sign him for a mere short term MLE before the Knicks gave him a multi-year deal the following offseason.

If there is one point that separated Randle from the rest of the crowd, he had the highest assist rate of the group, and at least was a semi-willing passer. This bodes ill for Whitmore, who was tied for Derrick Williams for dead last in the group.

Further, Whitmore is the shortest player with the lowest wingspan of the group, as well as the worst rebound and block rates. He also had the weakest Box Score Plus-Minus (BPM) of the group, although this is neutralized by his young age making him equalish to everybody but Michael Beasley.

Speaking of Beasley, what a ridiculously and insanely talented player to not have a successful NBA career. He apparently didn’t care about basketball, but with that much talent he shouldn’t need to care to be a decent NBA’er. His failure goes to show how much of an uphill climb success can be with broken instincts.

Jaylen Brown just missed the cut with 0.65 A:TO rate, but had 3 assists per 70 possessions and much higher defensive IQ than Whitmore with 6’11.75 wingspan. He was not in the same territory of red flags as Whitmore. He was a sloppy player who needed to improve his decision making and shoot better, but did not have any fatal flaws.

If there is a saving grace that sets Whitmore above this group he is likely the mostly athletic slasher of the group, and he has the highest steal rate. He has quick hands and this could be indicative of some instinctual advantage that can help overcome his limited IQ.

But it’s so hard to get excited about that giving him special upside that sets him significantly above a Randle, Bridges, or Maggette type. Scoring is worthless unless it comes attached to passing, so he needs to develop some sort of passing capability as well as learn to follow a defensive scheme so he does not get played off the floor defensively.

The nicest thing that can be said about Whitmore is that a polarized profile at a young age could give him upside that is not captured directly by a past comp. But he has some appalling warts to overcome, and is not an appealing value proposition in the top 10.

Kobe Bufkin

Kobe gives you a bit of everything offensively— he has some quicks and shake to get to the rim, he’s a decent shooter, he can pass a bit, and he can make plays on defense.

The downside is that he does not have one go to skill to lean on. He made 83.3% FT in his Michigan career, but on a mere 108 FTA sample. He shot 35.5% 3P as a sophomore, but on just 3.7 3PA per game in 34 minutes. He has potential to be a good shooter, but he also may be just OK at it.

In spite of his potential as a slasher, he posted a lukewarm 21.7 sophomore usage. He had a solid 1.5:1 A:TO rate, but only averaged 2.9 assists per game, and is not quite a true point guard. How much can his offensive load be stretched as a pro?

Defensively he is active with decent steals and blocks, and makes a better effort than the other SG prospects such as Nick Smith, Jalen-Hood Schifino, Jordan Hawkins, and Keyonte George. But he still is a skinny 6’4.25 without shoes, with 6’7.75 wingspan and a thin frame.

It’s a bad physical profile because while bigger than PG sized, it is still small for SG and too small to guard most wings. Thus while he is a better defensive player than most SG peers, he still projects to be a below average NBA player in most outcomes without making the offensive impact that a floor general point guard would make.

The optimistic comparison is that everything develops reasonably well, and he becomes a good and well rounded role player similar to Derrick White. Or perhaps he can be something like Immanuel Quickley if his shooting and defense both develop well.

But it is more likely that he develops well in some areas and not so well in others, in which case the comps are more mundane players like Jordan Poole, Lou Williams, and Spencer Dinwiddie. It’s really hard to think of many solid role playing SG’s who every team wants, which implies there may not be a huge margin for error in the NBA for Kobe and he comes attached to some non-trivial bust risk.

Ultimately Kobe comes down to how much to value his well roundedness vs. his lack of a major strength and suboptimal mold. I rate him above the aforementioned myriad lackluster SG’s in the class, but it’s difficult to say how he should compare to the guys with better molds but have more flaws to overcome.

Noah Clowney

Clowney is one of the youngest prospect in the draft, turning 19 after the draft in July. He has a good frame that can fill out over time, long wingspan, and good athleticism. He also played a significant role for a top 5 Alabama team starting and playing 25 minutes per game, so there are a number of reasons to believe in his potential.

The question is exactly what is his NBA role. He is an undersized center at 6’9 or 6’10 and averaged just 0.9 blocks per game for Alabama, so he is stuck between a small big and a big wing.

Skill wise he is a bit raw, as he shot 28.3% 3P 64.9% FT and averaged 0.8 assists vs 1.3 turnovers. But with another year of polish, he would only be slightly older than the average freshman with perhaps enough skill to fit on the wing, which is one path to success for him.

But it is not clear if he has the mobility to chase guards and wings around the perimeter. He has alright mobility, but can be upright at times, and it may not be ideal to play him as a full time wing. Further, his defensive decision making is a work in progress, which further complicates his role beyond not having a clear position.

The best thing that could happen is if he grew 2” and started blocking shots, but most prospects would benefit from a 2” growth spurt and most do not get one. As he is, it is difficult to envision exactly how Clowney fits on an NBA defense.

At a certain point it is worth not worrying too much about it, and just taking him because he is young with enough favorable qualities to be worth something. But it’s difficult to get too high on him without having any clear vision for his NBA niche.

Julian Phillips

Julian Phillips gives a bit of everything that teams look for in a modern wing. He is solid dimensions at 6’8 with 6’11.5 wingspan, he had more assists than turnovers as an NCAA freshman, he made 82% FT to suggest upside as a shooter, and he can move his feet and hold his own against guards defensively.

Phillips comes with flaws that sets him below the top tier of wings slated to go top 10. He struggles to score outside of bullying his way to the line, as he only attempted 1.4 3PA per game and made 24%, and shot just 46.6% from 2 on relatively low volume as he is not the most efficient creator or finisher.

He also had a lukewarm 1.6% steal and 2.9% block rate, which are fine but do not quite suggest he is a defensive stopper. That said, he played for the #1 defense in the country according to kenpom, and his on/off splits were exceptional as per hooplens:

Granted, there was significant luck from opponents making just 20% 3P, but the defense was impenetrable with Phillips on the court.

His handle is rudimentary at this stage, but his A:TO implies that he can hang on the wing offensively, his FT% implies that he can potentially extend his range to 3 point distance in time, and his physical tools and team defense imply that he can be a positive defensive player in the NBA.

He may not have a thrilling upside, but neither do most of the prospects outside of the top 3. He fits a coveted mold, is a young 5* freshman, and there is no fatal flaw that stands in the way of becoming a useful NBA player.

He is not quite a top 10 talent, but it is absolutely insane that Phillips is currently mocked to go in round 2. He doesn’t have any nasty warts, he is in a good mold, and in 5 years we may look back and wonder why he was not a lottery selection.

Trayce Jackson-Davis

TJD is bit of an awkward NBA mold as an undersized center, measuring 6’8.25” without shoes with a 7’1 wingspan. But we are a few years removed from seeing Brandon Clarke provide solid late first in a similar mold but even smaller, measuring 1” shorter and 4.75” less wingspan.

Clarke was more efficient with a ridiculous 70.3% 2P to Trayce’s 58.2%, but TJD offers higher scoring volume and nearly 2x the assist rate, with 6.8 assists per 100 compared to Clarke’s 3.8.

It’s difficult to say if TJD has the footspeed to cut it as an NBA defensive player, and his steal and block rates are lower than Clarke’s. But 2.9 blocks per game over 34.5 minutes is a high enough rate to give him outs to be a reasonable rim protector, and offensively he can be used as a creator, roll man, or garbage man.

He has been a high level starter for all 4 years at Indiana. Even though his mold is suboptimal, at some point it is difficult to deny his productivity, as it is easy to envision him as a useful NBA rotation player like Clarke.

The Periphery

Around this point the draft starts to lose its luster, and here are some names that could be argued in this tier or may be a tier down.

Keyonte George ripped a huge 3PA rate for Baylor, and he is a willing passer and has a strong frame and is willing to play physical. But he is undersized, underathletic, struggles to get to the rim, settles for bad shots, had more turnovers than assists, and played poor defensively. He has some intriguing positive points, but he may have a wart too many to be truly interesting. He reminisces of OJ Mayo.

Leonard Miller had impressive G-League stats, but it was mostly as an energy guy on putbacks and transition. He made 79% FT, but it was a small sample of attempts and he has a wonky looking shot. He is not much of a passer and has a low defensive IQ, and is stuck between being a too big wing and a too small big— much like Noah Clowney. Clowney is 8 months younger, has a less busted looking shot, and seems a bit higher IQ. Miller may have a better motor as he has a better rebound rate, but he seems like a slightly less appealing version of Clowney.

Jordan Walsh is an interesting round 2 sleeper with a great 7’1.75 wingspan and excellent defensive potential. His malfunction is that he offers very little offensively, although he is not completely broken as a passer and shooter for a young wing. Like Julian Phillips, there is some chance he proves to be a nice value role player in round 2.

Amari Bailey is an athletic SG who was #10 RSCI freshman and had a solid freshman season, especially down the stretch in the Pac-12 and NCAA tournaments. Yet somehow he is projected to go a full round later than his fellow freshmen Nick Smith and Jalen-Hood Schifino who had terrible seasons. His shooting is somewhat fringey and he is prone to playing out of control offensively and turning it over, but unlike most of the other SG prospects in the draft he can actually play defense.

Brice Sensabaugh is a top 20 talent as he is an excellent shooter, but he has bad knees which is causing him to slip in mocks. He is also a black hole chucker who is a bit undersized for wing.

James Nnaji is a physical freak who measured 7’ with 7’7 wingspan, and performed OK enough as an energy big in the ACB. But he only played 9 minutes per game on the season, so who knows what to do with him.