2023 Big Board
This my 10th year of doing a big board. Ranking an entire draft every season is a learning experience, as the feedback from NBA outcomes helps separate the signal from the noise. Every year I get a little bit sharper, and I believe this is my sharpest board yet.
Some of these takes are atypical, but the purpose is not to go against the grain, it is to be accurate and identify when consensus is objectively wrong.
Going with a slightly different format this time, as only the top 30 will be ranked, and then will discuss a few weakly held opinions in terms of UDFA’s that are semi-interesting and less interesting prospects that were only analyzed superficially. Then at the end there is my blacklist of players that are overrated enough such that I would rather delete them from my board than trying to figure out exactly where to place them.
Tier 1:
1. Victor Wembanyama
Wemby is an absolute freak who can do some impressive things on the court, but he is also a high variance player. He is highly leveraged based on 3 points: how well he shoots, how well his body fills out, and how long he stays healthy at his size.
In the best case where all of those go well, he can break the league since he can get his shot off against anybody and has DPOY potential. This is likely the source of generational hype, envisioning Durant offense intersecting with Gobert defense.
In reality, it is unlikely that he can be as good offensively as Durant at 7’5, but if he becomes a tier or two below Durant offensively and elite defensively, that is an MVP caliber player regardless.
But the issue is if those areas do not develop great. He can still be good without a strong frame and high level shooting, but may fall short of the generational hype. These aren’t huge concerns, but the injury risk is, as most bigs taller than 7’2 have had major injury histories and limited longevity.
This opens the door to busting, as we have seen generational prospects like Ralph Sampson, Greg Oden, and Zion Williamson get derailed by injury. Or Wemby could be similar to success cases like Yao Ming and Dwight Howard, where he provides a relatively short window of strong production before injuries cause an early decline.
If there was another elite prospect like Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Jaren Jackson Jr, or Evan Mobley on the board, it would not be clear that Wemby should be valued higher.
Wemby’s talent is immense enough to be worth the risk at #1 overall, but the generational hype is overkill. Generational hype should be reserved for can’t miss stars with very low downside risk like LeBron James and Luka Doncic.
The Spurs say they aren’t taking calls for trades and this may be a mistake. If you get a huge offer like Orlando offering Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero for #1, that would be worth cashing in on.
2. Brandon Miller
Miller is a mobile 6’9 shooter who was by far the best player for one of the best NCAA teams this past season. This is a mold that has a high NBA success rate and fits in all lineups, as you cannot have too many players who are great shooters with versatile defense.
The question with Miller is how high does his upside go? He was a sophomore aged freshman with wonky rim finishing in traffic, and may not have much upside as a slasher. His defense was decent, but not great, and while he was an excellent shooter he did not have strong priors to back it up. There is some chance he is merely a Harrison Barnes-ish role player, which is not a disaster but underwhelming in the top 3.
But there are a number of favorable comps: Rashard Lewis, Gordon Hayward, Peja Stojakovic, Cam Johnson, taller Klay Thompson, or even Paul George if he surprises defensively. None of them were MVP candidates, but all of them are super useful pieces that any contender would love to have.
Given that Wemby is the only candidate with clear MVP upside, it makes sense to settle next on the high floor Miller who can be an elite #2 or #3 option on a championship team.
Tier 2:
Detailed writeups for full tier here
3. Cason Wallace
Cason has good PG dimensions at 6’4 with 6’8.5” wingspan with good strength, and is a super well rounded player. He plays under control offensively, avoids mistakes, plays great defense, and is a capable shooter and scorer.
He has no real flaw holding him back and looks on track to become a super solid NBA player. His freshman stats are nearly identical to Jrue Holiday, and the only obstacle to him becoming that good is needing to match Jrue’s excellent development over the course of his NBA career.
If Wallace does not have the same development as Jrue, he can still be a quality role player like Marcus Smart or DeAnthony Melton who fits into a wide range of lineups as a useful role player.
4. Scoot Henderson
Scoot is a weird prospect, as he looked incredibly exciting after his 17/18 year old G-League season, and then oddly regressed at age 18/19 when he should have taken a major leap.
He has great length, a super jacked frame, and a good first step, but it’s not clear what his calling card to greatness in the NBA will be. He is a good but not quite an elite penetrator with questionable rim finishing, he is a decent but not great shooter, a good but not elite passer, and while he is physically capable of being good defensively he is currently bad on that end.
The optimistic comp is Derrick Rose, but he is not quite the athlete or graceful finisher, and he will likely need to find a way to compensate with better passing and/or shooting to reach that height.
Eric Bledsoe would be a more attainable upside comp, or perhaps a De’Aaron Fox with less proficient slashing but much better strength. There is some risk that he is merely a Markelle Fultz, or even a Dennis Smith Jr. type.
Scoot has some nice strengths and could have a good career, but ultimately he is a flawed mold, has flaws in his game, and no outlier strengths.
Given his market value, it would be insane to not trade down if he is on the board at #3. If Orlando is willing to offer 6 + 11, you can get two prospects of similar caliber for the price of one.
5. Anthony Black
Black is a high risk, high reward proposition. He is 6’7 and can handle, pass, and defend with excellent basketball instincts.
His downside is that he is prone to sloppy mistakes on both ends, and needs to improve his 3 point shooting. But he made 70.5% FT, so his shot is not hopelessly busted for a 19 year old.
He has a number of outcomes where is a bland role player like Evan Turner, but with a good development arc he has star upside.
6. Taylor Hendricks
Hendricks is the low friction role player that everybody wants, as he showed promising shooting potential with 39% 3P 78% FT and good defense with high versatility as a mobile 6’9 player who offers a pinch of rim protection.
He is not much of a creator offensively, but he did have nearly a 1:1 assist:TOV ratio which is historically predictive of college bigs translating to NBA wing.
There is quite a bit to like, but he lacks a chunky upside tail and has a bit of softness to his game. He is a OK but not great rebounder for his size, he doesn’t have great touch around the rim, and he shies away from contact on screens and has an underwhelming free throw rate. None of this is fatal, but they are a few minor dents in his profile.
Nevertheless he can be highly useful as a player who has decent odds of being above average as both a shooter and defender. This is such a coveted mold in the modern NBA, as every team wants multiple guys like this.
At a certain point it is not worth fretting too much over his upside potential and being happy to take a guy who has such a clear path to usefulness.
7. Dereck Lively
Lively a mobile 7’1 big with high IQ and defensive player of the year upside. He also is a good passer and occasionally attempts 3’s, which adds potential as a role player.
His downside is that he cannot do anything off the dribble right now. This is something that young bigs often improve significantly, but if not this could be a major impediment to Lively fitting in an NBA offense.
He has a chance of being a Rudy Gobert type defensive player, with possibly better passing and shooting to boot which is a fairly exciting upside. But he also may not be more than a boring rotation big, which in today’s NBA is worse than a boring rotation wing since you can only play one big at a time.
8. Brandin Podziemski
Podz does not have the ideal physical tools for the NBA, as he is 6’5 with limited athleticism, lateral mobility, and a mere 6’5.5" wingspan. But he is strong, smooth, skilled, and has elite feel for the game. He also has an excellent motor and plays extremely hard, as he is among the best rebounding guards in draft history.
The X-Factor for him will be how much he can overcome his physical limitations on both ends on craft and intelligence. He may be a bland low usage spot up guy with subpar defense, or he could be a guy who does quite a bit offensively as a secondary option with scrappy defense.
It is a risk taking him this high over younger prospects who fit more traditional NBA molds, but Podz has sneaky upside as a one of kind prospect with a rare intersection of strengths.
9. Gradey Dick
Dick is an excellent shooter making 40% 3P 85% FT as a freshman for Kansas. He is also a good passer who makes limited mistakes offensively, and is a great piece for NBA offenses.
Defensively he is a work in progress as he lacks strength, length, and athleticism, and does not always make the best decisions. But he has solid height at 6’8 and is active and has good instincts, so he is not completely hopeless on this end.
Ideally you are hoping for a Kyle Korver type of 3 + D role player that every team craves having in their lineup. Realistically he is likely closer to Kevin Huerter.
10. Jarace Walker
Jarace offers excellent wing dimensions at 6’8 with 7’2.5 wingspan, and a strong frame and good basketball IQ. His athleticism and lateral mobility are only OK, so he should be more of a 4 than a 3 in the NBA, and blocks enough shots to occasionally play as a small 5.
The question for him is exactly how good his defense will be, as he has some strengths but is prone to jumping too aggressively for blocks or overgambling for steals. In tandem with somewhat slow feet, his defense comes with a bit of risk, although it does project to be positive.
His shooting is OK enough for his age but needs to improve, as he made 35% 3P 66% FT for Houston. He also struggled to get to the rim or free throw line offensively, so it is not clear how good he will be as an NBA scorer. This creates a bit of downside risk.
The upside is that he is a great passer, so if he can figure out how to create and defend in the NBA he could be a super nice role player like Paul Millsap.
But that seems like a bit of a longshot, and more realistically he is going to be a role player. He is a worse and less athletic version of NCAA Aaron Gordon, so that’s the optimistic outcome where he does not become a creator. More realistically he may be closer to Bobby Portis.
Jarace has a funky distribution of traits which gives him some sneaky upside, but most of the time he will likely be decent but not great role player. And there is some downside risk if his shooting and defense hit their lower bound.
Tier 3:
Full writeups for this tier here:
11. Jaime Jaquez
Jaquez is 6’7 with 6’9.5 wingspan and is not the most athletic player in the world, but he plays hard and smart and that tends to find a way in the NBA.
His main selling point is that he has a high defensive IQ. He does not project to be an isolation stopper, but he thrives within the team context which is vital to be a positive defensive player.
The question is how well he will fit in an NBA offense with fringey shooting with 32.8% 3P 73.7% FT over his NCAA career. His scoring likely will not fully translate either, as he bullied smaller bigs in college.
But he has craft, footwork, and a positive assist:TO averaging 2 assists and 1.5 turnovers as an NCAA starter. His offense may not be that bad.
He has a good chance of being a solid role player like PJ Tucker or Jared Dudley, and could be even better because basketball IQ tends to find a way. He likely will not be quite the same as Draymond Green or Jimmy Butler, but they have pre-draft parallels and he can overachieve in his own rite.
12. Kobe Bufkin
Bufkin is a well rounded SG who gives you a bit of everything, but not too much of any one thing. He can handle, pass, get to the rim, shoot, and defend all decently enough.
Statistically he is nearly identical to Tyrese Maxey, so it would not be a surprise if he had similar NBA success. though Maxey has overachieved as a shooter early in his career making 41.4% 3P to start, so this is likely an above median outcome for Kobe.
Other optimistic outcomes include Immanuel Quickley or Derrick White, although that entails quite a bit of good development.
But this is not the best mold, because skinny 6’6 guards are typically bad defensively. Typical outcomes may be more flawed like Jordan Poole, and you can only hope his drafting team learns to not pay him $30M/year.
13. Bilal Coulibaly
Coulibaly is the mystery box of the draft. He is 6’8 with 7’2 wingspan, moves well, and turns 19 shortly after the draft in July. He played a significant role in his French team’s run to the finals, coming out of nowhere after starting the season in the baby league.
The appeal is that nothing is broken about him. His shot is OK enough, he has almost a 1:1 assist:tov ratio, he has the mobility to defend the perimeter, and he can use his length to generate a decent steal rate. His handle is currently a work in progress, but he is occasionally able to get to the rim and finish with a good first step.
So it is easy to see the upside if he develops well. But at the same time he currently does not do that much on the court, so it is easy to see the bust risk if he does not. His quality mold makes him a reasonable gamble, but his lack of production prevents him from being too attractive.
14. Jett Howard
Juwan’s son is 6’8 and an excellent shooter who can handle, pass, and avoid turnovers offensively. He is also capable of moving his feet defensively, and is almost a perfect NBA role player.
Except his defense is incredibly soft and lackadaisical. He does not always play hard, he shies away from contact, and he rebounds like a 5’8 guard. He also has an incredibly low steal rate which is further indicative of his lack of force. These are some heavy warts that could derail all of his goodness and cause him to either bust or be an underwhelming role player.
But on average players with NBA dads tend to overachieve in the NBA, so it may be wrong to get too low on him. Especially since he is such a great mold with such an easy path to success in the NBA.
15. Julian Phillips
Phillips checks all of the boxes for a solid NBA role player. He has good dimensions at 6’8 with 6’11.5” wingspan, moves well, makes 82% FT, and has an A:TO > 1. He played a significant role for Tennessee who finished the season with the #1 kenpom defense.
His main flaw is that he is currently not comfortable from 3, making 24% on 1.4 3PA per game. He really is not much of a scorer from anywhere other than the free throw line. And while he has potential on defense, he is not a full fledged stopper at this stage, and has ordinary steal and block rates.
But he has a relatively easy path to NBA usefulness. Develop 3 point range, play solid defense, and then he is the type of player that every teams needs.
16. Cam Whitmore
Cam Whitmore is a strong and highly athletic scorer off the dribble, as well as one of the youngest players in the class turning 19 shortly after the draft.
The trouble with Whitmore is that he also has one of the lowest basketball IQ’s in the draft, as he has a microscopic assist rate with an A:TO < 0.5. For undersized NCAA bigs converting to big wings, this is historically a red flag that has been present in busts such as Anthony Bennett, Jabari Parker, Derrick Williams, and Michael Beasley.
It is not a complete death knell, but it is exacerbated by a low defensive IQ as well as stumpy dimensions at 6’7 with 6’8.5 wingspan.
The ray of hope is his high steal rate for Villanova, as this could be indicative of some instinctual advantage that helps him overcome his subpar length and intelligence. But Whitmore comes with a high bust risk, and it’s not even clear what his upside comp may be. Perhaps something like a SF version of Julius Randle, but he has a fairly unique distribution of traits so he is not going to be exactly like any past player if he does succeed.
Realistically Whitmore could be on the pass list because injuries may cause him to slide
17. Noah Clowney
Clowney is super young, long, reasonably athletic, and has traces of skill as he shot a decent 3PA rate. He only made 28.3% with 64.9% FT, but that’s fine given his age + size, as he started and played a significant role for an Alabama team that had an excellent season.
His question mark is what is his defensive role in the NBA? He is 6’9 or 6’10 and not really a rim protector, so he is somewhat stuck being small 5 and big wing.
The long term potential is there, but it is a bit of a gamble that it shakes out in a way that fits into a clear NBA role.
18. Trayce Jackson-Davis
TJD offers a bit of everything, as he can create in the post, pass, finish lobs, rebound, and block shots. He is a small big at 6’9, and the hope would be that he finds a niche similar to Brandon Clarke in Memphis.
He is older and not in the ideal NBA mold, but was super productive as a 4 year NBA starter and has so many dimensions to his game, he could be a nice role player steal if he slides all the way to round 2.
19. Jordan Walsh
Walsh is 6’7 with 7’1.75” wingspan, great defense, and youth. Offensively he does not do all that much, but he had an A:TO of nearly 1:1 with 0.9 assists vs 1.0 turnovers, and shot 28% 3P 71% FT, which implies some chance of learning to shoot in time.
While his offense is underwhelming, he has a chance of developing his passing and shooting well enough to fit as a role player and justify getting his defense on the floor.
Walsh provides a fairly interesting value proposition in late round 1 or round 2. It is easy to be offput by his inability to score right now, but he does not need any outlier growth to find a niche as an NBA defensive player.
20. Andre Jackson Jr.
Andre Jackson is a fascinating value proposition in that he is an absolute hooper outside of the fact that he cannot score to save his life. He averaged just 6.7 points in 29.1 minutes per game as a 21 year old junior for champion UConn, as he had a number of blown tire finishes and is a subpar shooter.
But his feel for the game is elite. He moves well without the ball, is a great passer, has good defense, and his shooting is not completely hopeless with 29% 3P 70% FT over his NCAA career.
There is some chance that the lack of scoring is a dealbreaker for Jackson in the NBA, but feel for the game often finds a way. He is something like a Matisse Thybulle type, but much better passer and without the crazy steals and blocks.
Thybulle has not been particularly good, but he has been a rotation player. And the difference is that Jackson is able to impact the game on both ends of the court with his feel. Even if he is worse defensively than Thybulle, that could be more than outweighed by offensive advantages if he can at least make an open 3.
Tier 4: Getting Thin
21. Keyonte George
George is strong, physical, a willing passer, and rips a ton of 3’s.
But he is short for a SG, lacks burst to get to the rim, has more turnovers than assists, plays bad defense, and his shooting is merely good but not elite making 34% 3P 79% FT.
He has some interesting strengths, but they may not be enough to outweigh his weaknesses. Undersized SG is a tough mold to win without a strong case.
22. Amari Bailey
Amari Bailey is a small SG who measured 6’3.25” barefoot with 6’7 wingspan. But unlike the most of SG’s projected ahead of him, Bailey actually is athletic and plays defense.
This is in part offset by his offense being a work in progress. He made 39% 3P but on low volume attempting 1.8 per game, and only made 70% FT. He is prone to playing out of control and had more slightly more turnovers than assists.
But he has enough baseline creation skills and hope of shooting to be reasonably interesting if he can polish his game offensively over the years.
23. James Nnaji
Nnaji is an energy big who is huge with freakish dimensions at 7’ with 7’7 wingspan. His stats per minute were interesting in Europe this season, but he only played 9 minutes per game.
I have no real opinion on him, but figure it’s probably fair to stash him somewhere late first on tools alone.
24. Leonard Miller
Miller is an enigmatic player as he was highly productive in the G-League getting high point and rebound numbers. He has an excellent motor and was able to get buckets as a garbage man in putbacks and transition.
But he has the same issue as Noah Clowney, in that he is stuck between the 4 and 5. He is 6’11 with a 7’2 wingspan, and even though he rebounds like a 5 he cannot protect the rim and is not quite built to defend the perimeter.
Further, he has a low basketball IQ and makes frequent mistakes defensively. And while he made 79% FT on a small sample of attempts, he has ugly form on his jumper and took a low rate of 3PA. These flaws set him a tier below Clowney, who is 8 months younger and not quite as flawed.
25. Terquavion Smith
Terq has some promising strengths, as he is a decent passer, gets up a ton of 3PA, and competes on defense.
But he is prone to playing out of control, only made 70% FT, and is by far the lightest player in the draft measuring just 163 pound which limits his upside.
He can possibly be a Bones Hyland type.
26. Mo Gueye
Gueye is an interesting flier in that he is 6’10.25” barefoot with 7’3.25” wingspan, and has great fluidity for his size.
He has capable creation ability and his sophomore assists (1.9) vs turnovers (2.3) was almost 1:1. His shooting is fringey as he made 28% 3P 61% FT in his NCAA career.
While he rebounds well, he has extremely soft help defense and rim protection as he averaged a paltry 0.8 blocks per game in 32 minutes. He is more of a big wing than a true big, and will need to improve his shooting and handle to carve out an NBA career.
He only starting playing basketball when he was 14 or 15 so it would not be a shock if he has an outlier developmental trajectory, which makes him an intriguing upside pull in round 2.
27. Tosan Evubuomwan
Evbuomwan is a huge point guard who measured 6’7.25" barefoot with 7’1.5 wingspan, and has off the charts creation potential for a UDFA prospect.
Using play by play data to analyze which NCAA prospects self create at the rim the most, the top 2 players by far were Trayce Jackson-Davis (2.17 per 40) and Cam Whitmore (1.92). But that analysis did not include players projected to go undrafted, and Evbwuomwan blows them both away with a whopping 3.55 per 40 this year and 3.71 per 40 last year.
Granted, he is an older prospect who played in the Ivy League, but he did not struggle to translate his offense to high major defenses in the NCAA tournament as he led Princeton to the Sweet 16 where he averaged 16 pts, 5.3 rebs, 6 assists, and a microscopic 1.3 turnovers in 3 tournament games.
He is too big for guards to defend, too quick for bigs, and a very good passer to boot, as he averaged 5 assists and 2.7 turnovers over the past 2 seasons. He does not overdribble and makes quick decisions.
Downside is that he is not much of a shooter, making 65% FT and shooting 9/30 3P on the season. His defense is a work in progress in well. This is problematic for a 22 year old, which is why he is in the UDFA pile.
But Tosan has only been playing since he was 14, and if he can fill out those aspects of his game he has a massive upside for likely undrafted prospect.
28. Marcus Sasser
Sasser is a 3 + D who gets off a huge volume of 3PA and defends well for his size. It’s not a high upside mold, but he has outs to become a Seth Curry or Patty Mills who can provide useful rotation minutes for a team that who gets sufficient offensive creation from its frontcourt.
29. Jalen Pickett
After showing potential early in his career at Siena, Jalen Pickett finally had a monster breakout year as a 5th year senior for Penn State, averaged 17.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, 6.6 assists, and just 2.3 turnovers.
Pickett is not the most athletic PG, but he was able to create a huge volume of efficient offense using booty ball, backing defenders down in the paint and creating opportunities with craft and intelligence. This is not the traditional style for guard offense in the NBA, but Jalen Brunson was 1” shorter with 3.25” less wingspan than Pickett and was able to translate, so maybe Pickett can make it work too.
30. Colin Castleton
Castleton is an older big man who gives a bit of everything. He can handle, pass, rebound, score, protect the rim, and has decent mobility for his size as he is 7’ in shoes with 7’3.5 wingspan.
Even his shot is not completely busted. He only shot 2/32 from 3P in his NCAA career, but made 73% FT and has some small chance of learning to make an open 3 pointer in time.
He is an older prospect who turned 23 a month ago in May, but it’s easy to see a prospect this well rounded finding an NBA niche.
UDFA targets:
These are prospects projected to possibly go undrafted who seem worth a look in UDFA or late round 2. They are relatively weaker opinions with more superficial analysis, who look interesting at a glance:
Adama Sanogo
Sanogo is an undersized big at 6’7.25” in shoes with 7’2.75 wingspan, who offers a bit of everything. He can score inside, rebound, and he flashed a bit of shooting this year making 36.5% 3P 76.6% FT on 1.3 3PA/game. He is also a decent passer for a big man, although not great with 1.3 assists vs 1.9 turnovers per game.
He is on the fringe of getting drafted for being too small to protect the rim and too slow to switch onto the perimeter, but this is a fun archetype of UDFA to pursue in case he turns out a bit more perimeter-y than he seemed.
Jalen Slawson
Slawson is the mid-major statistical darling who offers a bit of everything. As a 5th year senior he averaged 15.6 pts, 7.1 rebs, 3.2 assists, 1.5 stls, 1.5 blk, 62.6% 2P, 39.4% 3P 77.5% FT. He has solid wing dimensions at 6’6.5 barefoot and 6’11.75 wingspan and solid vertical athleticism with 43 dunks.
Downside is that he turns 24 in October, only shot 32.9% 3P on mediocre volume in his NCAA career, and is not the most mobile player. While he fits an excellent role player archetype, neither his 3 nor D can be taken from granted as NBA caliber.
But he has a chance of being decent at both and being a solid NBA role player, which would be a great value for UDFA.
Oscar Tshiebwe
Like Sanogo, Tshiebwe is a slow undersized big who will likely go undrafted due to being 6’7.25 barefoot and likely not being good enough defensively for the NBA. But there are a few redeeming factors that give him appeal.
He has a nice 7’3.5 wingspan, and uses it to get in the passing lanes and generate a high steal rate. He is also an absolute monster rebounder, as he was #2 offensive rebounder in the country behind Zach Edey two seasons in a row, with top 10 defensive rebounding each year to boot.
He had almost as many assists (1.6) as turnovers (2.) and while he only went 0/2 from 3P, he shot 73% FT and his shot may not completely be busted.
In 2022 he was voted NCAA Player of the Year, as he carried an underwhelming Kentucky team to #6 best in the country via kenpom rankings. Then he had a preseason knee surgery this season, and took a step back and was highly productive.
He turns 24 in October and his shooting and defense may be too cursed to find an NBA niche, but he has some extremely outlier strengths on the basketball court and it wouldn’t be a shock if he finds an NBA niche, as he has strong statistical parallels to Paul Millsap.
Jaylen Clark
Clark is a small SG who measured 6’4 with 6’9 wingspan, but played bigger than his size averaging 6 rebounds per game as a junior. He also had a monster 2.6 steals per game, and won Pac-12 DPOY.
Offensively is relatively limited, but got to the rim in a pinch and had a 1.5:1 A:TO. His shooting is a work in progress but he took a leap as a junior making 33% 3P 70% FT.
The hope is that his defense is elite for size, and his offense is OK enough to justify getting him on the floor. But it should be noted his season was cut short by an achilles injury, which is difficult to come back from at 100%, which is a bit of hit to his value.
He’s a weird prospect, but his unique strengths make him a reasonably interesting value proposition if he is UDFA.
Matthew Mayer
Mayer is 6’9 and takes a huge 3PA rate, and sometimes even makes them as he shot 33.9% 68.9% over his NCAA career. Otherwise he offers a bit of everything, as he rebounds, can handle and pass enough, and has a high career NCAA steal rate and possibly could hold his own on the perimeter.
He is a bit of a wild man, as he is foul prone and struggles to play major minutes, and was hospitalized for caffeine poisoning after drinking 6 monster energy drinks this season. He seems like he should be a round 2 flier, so if he goes undrafted he is a solid two-way target.
Shrug Tier:
This is the “I don’t know” tier. It’s mostly players that I have scarcely watched and analyzed, because they are not super interesting. But that does not mean they are necessarily bad, and there could be some decent guys here who have been glazed over with quick and superficial analysis:
Colby Jones
Jones is a SG at 6’6 with 6’8 wingspan, who has a bit of PG skills. He can get to the rim a bit, and averaged 4.4 assists vs 2.3 turnover as a young junior who just turned 21 in May. He also rebounds fairly well for a guard averaging 6.2 rebounds per game in 32.7 career minutes/game.
But what is his NBA role? He is a fringey shooter who made just 68% FT in his NCAA career and had a fairly low volume of 3PA. He has short arms and is mediocre SG size, and is likely a bad defensive player.
He is subpar from a 3 + D perspective, and does not have all that much creation upside as he is more of a secondary option. The secondary creation will be nice to have if he finds a way to provide solid shooting and defense, but otherwise it will not be worth having on the court.
Colby is a weird one. I wanted to watch his to get a better feel, but ran out of time so he goes in the shrug tier.
Ben Sheppard
Sheppard made 41.5% 3P with decent volume as a senior, and 37% for his NCAA career, which shows promise as a shooter. But he only made 68.4% FT as a senior and 69.6% career, which casts some doubt on how good he really is at shooting.
Otherwise, he seems fine but has no special strengths. He has SG dimensions at 6’5.25 barefoot with 6’7.75 wingspan. You are basically hoping that he is a good shooter and otherwise OK enough to justify being on the floor.
This could feasibly work, but he turns 22 shortly after the draft in July. How confident can you be that somebody this age who is still hovering under 70% FT is worth betting a 1st round pick on as an NBA shooter?
Who knows, maybe he is fine in round 2 but seems blah in round 1.
Kobe Brown
Kobe is a big boy who is 6’8 in shoes with 7’0.75 wingspan 252 pounds. He fits a nice role playing wing archetype, as he offers a bit of everything statistically.
One question for Kobe is if he can shoot. He made 45.5% 4P 79.2% FT as a senior, but had middling 3PA volume, and only shot 31.3% on 3’s for his NCAA career.
While he has quick hands and a good steal rate, is he quick enough to defend the NBA perimeter? Missouri had a great offense but weak defense this past season where they gambled heavily for steals, and had terrible defensive eFG% and rebounding when they failed to force a turnover.
Brown is an older prospect at age 23, and had a big breakout this year at a late age following a breakout last year. At ages 20/21 he looked nothing like a future NBAer, and being this much of a late bloomer is a bit of a red flag. Even though he looks like an NBA prospect now, it may be too little too late.
Ultimately Brown has an intriguing profile, but there are a few red flags that make it difficult to strongly believe in him succeeding as a pro.
Olivier Maxence Prosper
O-Max has been a massive late riser in the draft. After failing to impress teams with basketball playing ability during the season, he has won them over with his physical tools during the combine and workouts, which seems like a dubious reason to skyrocket somebody up the board.
O-Max is 6’8 with 7’1 wingspan and athletic in some ways, so long as you do not count a player being able to control his limbs as part of athleticism. He plays hard but in an inefficient way, where he fails to do much on the court due to his inefficient movement and limited feel. In spite of playing 29.1 minutes per game, he averaged just 12.5 pts, 4.7 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.9 stls, 0.1 (???) blocks, which is highly underwhelming for a wing with his size whose selling point is energy and athleticism.
If there is one ray of hope for O-Max, it is that he has ridiculous on/off splits. Per Hooplens.com:
Marquette had an excellent season as a big overachiever, and all of the good stuff happened when O-Max was on the floor. From watching him play the most likely conclusion is that this is small sample size coincidence, as he had slightly negative splits last year with similar box score output for a much worse team. But who knows, maybe there is some subtle magic to his aimless flailing.
The first round hype and green room invite seems like a bit much for O-Max, but who knows, maybe he finds a way to be a useful rotation wing.
Julian Strawther
Strawther 6’6 barefoot with 6’9.25 wingspan, which is passable size for SF. He is a good spot up shooter, making 38.4% 3P 74.5% FT in his 3 years career at Gonzaga.
He fairly similar to Corey Kispert, who went lottery two years ago. Kispert offered a bit more passing and shooting, Strawther has a bit more rebounding and 2.5” more wingspan. Between the two of them, Kispert was slightly better.
Kispert was a reach in the lottery, although he has played significant minutes in his first two seasons and seems like he will at least have an NBA career, albeit a boring one. So a slightly worse version of Kispert probably belongs somewhere in round 2.
Sidy Cissoko
Sidy is interesting in theory as defensive wing who can pass the ball and is not completely broken as a shooter.
But he is a bit small for a wing, as he is 6’7 in shoes with 6’9.75 wingspan, and he averaged a meager 2.8 rebounds per game in 29 minutes. How many defensive stopping NBA wings rebound like a small guard? It’s tough to think of one.
And if his defense is merely fine or decent, there is not much to write home about offensively. He’s a fringey shooter, making 31% 3P 64% FT, and is an inefficient scorer who struggles to create. His biggest plus is 3.1 assists per game vs 1.9 turnovers, but that is approximately the average assist:TOV ratio in the G-League (1.61), which is 50% higher than the average NCAA A:TO rate (1.08).
Sidy is young, so maybe he eventually becomes something. He seems like a fine choice in round 2. There’s just no strong selling point to get too excited over.
Jalen Wilson
Jalen Wilson gives a bit of everything in a well rounded wing package, but has no major strengths. The major concern for him is that he had 0 dunks as an NCAA junior, and just 3 in his NCAA career.
Maybe he just doesn’t like dunking and prefers layups, but this should call his athleticism into question. He is only 6’7 in shoes with a 6’8 wingspan, and is not a great shooter with 31.6% 3P 73.2% FT in his NCAA career, although he did make 33.7% 3P 79.9% FT as a junior.
He can handle and pass and score and is a reasonable round 2 guy on paper, but it is worth worrying if there is quite enough goodness there to overcome his lackluster dimensions and athleticism.
Brice Sensabaugh
Sensaubaugh is a great shooter who is a top 20 talent, but is sliding down the board because of bad knees. Gambling on talented guys with injuries will be something that most fans will root for, but if his injuries are bad enough he is not a viable option. Without having any clue of his injury’s severity, Brice is the ultimate shrug.
Pass Tier:
These are the players who are overvalued by consensus enough such that it’s not worth bothering trying to rank them. It is not relevant exactly how overrated they are, all that matters is that wherever they go in the draft I would not take them.
For instance, Amen Thompson is obviously a top 58 prospect in the draft, but he is never sliding to #58 without having something extremely wrong with him, so the most efficient approach is to simply not rank these guys and focus on the players who are worth drafting instead.
Inevitably, some of these guys should end up as decent NBA players, and that’s OK. The point is not to predict they will all bust with certainty, although a good portion of them should. The point is to take more efficient pulls at the slots where they would be available, and on average end up with better outcomes from the players that I would have considered above them.
Full writeups on each player can be found here.
The Blacklist:
Amen Thompson
Ausar Thompson
Jordan Hawkins
Nick Smith Jr.
Jalen Hood-Schifino
Rayan Rupert
Kris Murray
Maxwell Lewis
Dariq Whitehead
Seth Lundy
GG Jackson
Emoni Bates